From: utzoo!decvax!harpo!eagle!mhuxt!mhuxj!cbosgd!npois!houxi!houxc!ad7i
Newsgroups: net.ham-radio
Title: Propagation Bulletin 40
Article-I.D.: houxc.266
Posted: Thu Oct  7 08:12:47 1982
Received: Tue Oct 12 00:26:02 1982


qst de ad7i
hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 40	from arrl headquarters
newington ct  october 4, 1982
to all radio amateurs bt

the solar flux started rising september 19, at 137.  except for two
brief dips, it continued upward to 218 on october 3.  this was the
highest flux reading since july 14.  as expected, this produced the
best propagation on 21 and 28 mhz in at least five months.  it also
pointed to improved prospects for 50 mhz dx during the next two solar
rotations.  most likely periods would be october 28 to november 2 and
november 25 to 30.  more detailed predictions will be given in
subsequent bulletins.

one of the most severe geomagnetic disturbances of this solar cycle
began september 5.  a recurrence of this event is likely between
october 4 and 7, probably at lower levels than in early september.
watch for exceptional transequatorial propagation on the higher hf
bands, and possibly on 50 mhz, in this period.	when it subsides,
there will be good to excellent conditions on all hf bands through
the middle of october.	the solar flux will be too low for good 50
mhz prospects at this time, but frequencies below 30 mhz will be
quite good.

the solar flux is expected to be lower during the forecast week,
probably dropping to 150 or lower.  this should make for good
accuracy in the use of the current qst propagation charts.

american sunspot numbers for september 23 through 29 were between 96
on the 23rd and 172 on the 29th, for a mean of 132  ar