From: utzoo!decvax!harpo!ihnp4!ihps3!houxz!houxi!houxp!ad7i
Newsgroups: net.ham-radio
Title: Propagation Bulletin 50
Article-I.D.: houxp.173
Posted: Tue Dec 14 08:42:11 1982
Received: Wed Dec 15 04:46:02 1982


qst de ad7i
hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 50	from arrl headquartere
newington ct  december 13, 1982
to all radio amateurs  bt

the solar flux rise that began at 171 on december 2 peaked at 279 on
the 19th, the highest reading since february 1.  for two days the
flux was more than 100 points above the corresponding day in the
previous solar rotation, an unlikely event so far past the peak of
this solar cycle.  this activity pattern will be reversed, probably
before the 19th, as the decline that began on the 11th is expected to
be a steep one.

the high solar flux in recent days did not bring much improvement in
dx conditions, because it was associated with numerous and intense
solar flares.  the increased geomagnetic activity resulting from
these caused high absorption on all amateur frequencies.  still the
50 mhz band was open marginally across the atlantic on at least three
days.

the down side of the flux peak should bring generally good
propagation but with the loss of 50 mhz dx, probably by the 17th.
the earths magnetic field will be more stable through the forecast
week, resulting in better conditions on all dx frequencies, a trend
that will be reversed again about the 19th.

american sunspot numbers were between 119 and 181 last week, for a
mean of 147.  they have peaked and will be much lower before next
weeks bulletin	ar