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From: halle1@houxz.UUCP
Newsgroups: net.math,net.misc,net.rec.bridge
Subject: Re: simple (?) statistics problem solved
Message-ID: <414@houxz.UUCP>
Date: Fri, 19-Aug-83 14:04:15 EDT
Article-I.D.: houxz.414
Posted: Fri Aug 19 14:04:15 1983
Date-Received: Fri, 19-Aug-83 21:34:16 EDT
References: <1287@tektronix.UUCP>
Organization: Bell Labs, Holmdel NJ
Lines: 8

You are making a major mistake.  You were told that ONE was gold, not that
the first was gold.  In essence, the question asks: given four coins, one
of which is silver, the rest gold, you pick a gold one.  What is the
chance that your next selection is also gold?  Obviously the answer
is 2/3.  Remember, everything was done at random.
Reread the solution carefully, and with an open mind.  You should see
that it is correct.
(I bet every bridge player worth his master points got this one right.)