Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP
Posting-Version: version B 2.10 5/26/83; site ihuxe.UUCP
Path: utzoo!linus!decvax!harpo!eagle!mhuxt!mhuxi!cbosgd!ihnp4!ihuxe!rainbow
From: rainbow@ihuxe.UUCP
Newsgroups: net.rec.bridge
Subject: RE: another toughie.2
Message-ID: <286@ihuxe.UUCP>
Date: Mon, 8-Aug-83 17:41:19 EDT
Article-I.D.: ihuxe.286
Posted: Mon Aug  8 17:41:19 1983
Date-Received: Tue, 9-Aug-83 06:14:51 EDT
Organization: BTL Naperville, Il.
Lines: 38


                                   NORTH
                                   S:J9
                                   H:K4
                                   D:7642
                                   C:AQJT8
                              
                                   SOUTH
                                   S:AQT87643
                                   H:J76
                                   D:A
                                   C:4
  
Rubber bridge. South opens 4S which becomes the final contract. West leads
the KD. 
  
A previous solution stated:
   1) finesse the KC for a heart pitch. If it fails then...
   2) force an entry into North via trumps for a heart pitch on the AC. If
         East has the KS he wont be able to thwart your plans. If West has
         the KS and plays a low heart then...
   3) guess how to play the heart suit.
  
Each of the above possibilities has a 50% chance of succeeding, so you will
make your contract 7 out of 8 times.
  
The following proposed solution will make the contract 15 out of 16 times:
   1) play a low heart towards the King. If East wins the Ace and plays a
         spade to prevent you from obtaining a heart ruff, then...
   2) win the AS. If the KS doesnt drop, then...
   3) enter dummy with the AC and play a heart towards the Jack. If West wins
         the Queen, then...
   4) hope West doesnt have the KS to play preventing you from getting a 
         heart ruff.
  
Basically this line of play relies on one of two heart finesses working(75%
chance of success) or West not having King doubleton of spades(75% chance of 
a different distribution occuring). So your contract will be set 1 out of
16 times with this line of play((1/4)*(1/4)).