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From: kwmc@hou5d.UUCP (K. W. M. Cochran)
Newsgroups: net.math
Subject: Re: A statistics paradox
Message-ID: <663@hou5d.UUCP>
Date: Mon, 19-Sep-83 09:23:20 EDT
Article-I.D.: hou5d.663
Posted: Mon Sep 19 09:23:20 1983
Date-Received: Tue, 20-Sep-83 20:02:42 EDT
References: <205@ecn-ed.UUCP>
Organization: American Bell ED&D, Holmdel, NJ
Lines: 17


        Let p = .5 be the probability that a phenomenum will happen to
an item. Thus the probability that it won't happen is 1-p = .5
        So with a population of 2, the probability that the phenomenum
happens to at least one of the items will be p+p = 1 , while the probability
that the phenomenum will not happen to either is (1-p)(1-p) = .25
hence making a total of 1.25 ?!?!
        Where did I go wrong ?

        Hao-Nhien Vu (pur-ee!norris)

**************************************************************************

Your slip up was when you assumed that the probability that the phenomenum
happens to at least one item is p+p.  This probability is 1-(p*p) = .75

				Ken Cochran          hou5d!kwmc