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From: koch@stolaf.UUCP (Paul E. Koch)
Newsgroups: net.math
Subject: Re: New Probability problems: answers
Message-ID: <1210@stolaf.UUCP>
Date: Mon, 26-Sep-83 16:29:57 EDT
Article-I.D.: stolaf.1210
Posted: Mon Sep 26 16:29:57 1983
Date-Received: Wed, 28-Sep-83 05:38:25 EDT
References: <516@houxz.UUCP>
Organization: St. Olaf College, Northfield MN
Lines: 18


  I'm sorry but the answer to your card problem is wrong. By Bayes theorem

	P(Lost club | 5 Clubs drawn)= P(5 clubs drawn | L(ost) C(lub))*P(LC)
				     ---------------------------------------
				     P(5  C|LC)*P(LC)+P(5 C | not LC)*P(not LC)
 
	= 12*11*10*9*8        1
	 -------------      * -
	51*50*49*48*47        4
------------------------------------------------
 12*11*10* 9* 8    1        13*12*11*10* 9    3
--------------   * -   +    --------------  * -
 51*50*49*48*47    4        51*50*49*48*47    4

	= .1702

				Paul Koch