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Path: utzoo!linus!philabs!cmcl2!floyd!clyde!ihnp4!ihuxr!lew
From: lew@ihuxr.UUCP (Lew Mammel, Jr.)
Newsgroups: net.math
Subject: Re: missing card problem
Message-ID: <668@ihuxr.UUCP>
Date: Wed, 28-Sep-83 18:29:33 EDT
Article-I.D.: ihuxr.668
Posted: Wed Sep 28 18:29:33 1983
Date-Received: Fri, 30-Sep-83 03:39:20 EDT
Organization: BTL Naperville, Il.
Lines: 15

R. Wienski wonders why 7/46 disagrees with the Bayesian answer. He erred
by not including the missing card among the cards remaining after the
5 clubs are drawn. The answer is 8/47. Note that :

13*12*11*10*9        13   12*11*10*9*8
-------------   =    -- * ------------
51*50*49*48*47       8    51*50*49*48*47

Calling this value "A", the Bayesian answer becomes:

	8/13 * A / ( 8/13 * A + 3*A ) = 8/47

It doesn't matter if the 5 clubs are drawn before or after the card is lost.

	Lew Mammel, Jr. ihuxr!lew