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Path: utzoo!linus!decvax!decwrl!asente
From: asente@decwrl.UUCP (Paul Asente)
Newsgroups: net.math
Subject: Re: Let's Make a Deal
Message-ID: <3430@decwrl.UUCP>
Date: Tue, 4-Oct-83 14:22:50 EDT
Article-I.D.: decwrl.3430
Posted: Tue Oct  4 14:22:50 1983
Date-Received: Fri, 7-Oct-83 01:31:19 EDT
References: <165@mi-cec.UUCP>
Organization: DEC Western Research Lab, Los Altos, CA
Lines: 18

This argument seems pretty watertight:

If you were correct in your original choice of doors, then you win by
not switching & lose by switching.

If you were wrong in your original choice, then you lose by not
switching and win by switching (since Monte has thoughtfully eliminated
the other booby prize).

You are correct in your original choice 1/3 of the time and incorrect
2/3 of the time.

Therefore, you lose by switching 1/3 of the time and win by switching
2/3 of the time.  So you should always switch, and you'll win 2/3 of
the time!  (Amazing)

	-paul asente
	    (decvax, allegra, ucbvax, ihnp4)!decwrl!asente