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From: janc@uofm-cv.UUCP
Newsgroups: net.followup,net.politics
Subject: Re: Korean Jet
Message-ID: <243@uofm-cv.UUCP>
Date: Sun, 4-Sep-83 16:08:39 EDT
Article-I.D.: uofm-cv.243
Posted: Sun Sep  4 16:08:39 1983
Date-Received: Tue, 6-Sep-83 21:43:59 EDT
References: <2765@rochester.UUCP> druny.682
Lines: 51

Several people seem to be amazed that the Russians would do anything so
stupid, and think, therefore that something big is being hidden.  People
seem to believe the Soviets are a lot better organized, and more in
control of their actions than America is.  Actually, I suspect they're
bumbling around as blindly as we are, only they're a bit more paranoid.

Remember the MiG pilot who defected a few years ago?  When he landed in
Japan people were really spooked because they didn't know what his 
intentions were.  He didn't talk to the tower because his radio was set
up so he could not.  The soviets don't want their fighter pilots talking
to westerners.  It is entirely possible that the planes that intercepted
KAL 007 could not have warned the airliner.

Some time ago another Korean airliner wandered into Russian airspace and
stayed there quite a while before the soviets responded.  The Soviets
were embarassed and, I understand, had the person in charge of air
defense in that area shot.  Consider the person in that seat during this
incident.  Was he thinking about foreign policy implications?  Not likely.
He was thinking about saving his own skin.  What kind of decision do you
expect under such conditions?

In a situation where everyone is afraid of everyone else, and noone is
able to trust anyone, stupid tragedies are hardly surprising.  The real
problem here is mutual paranoia on both sides.  It keeps giving rise to
incidents, like this one, that only seem to confirm the paranoia.  The
U.S. sees Germany wanting to buy oil from Russia, and moves to block it
because we're afraid an important ally would be undermined.  The soviets
see this and say to themselves, "Gee, they really are out to get us".
For some stupid, paranoid reason the soviets shoot down an airliner, and
now people are running around in the U.S. saying, "Gee, they really are
out to get us".  This only gets worse.  You have to break the cycle.
Scared people behave in ways that can, in normal terms, be considered
insane.  Do you like having all those nuclear weapons in the hands of
people who are functionally insane?

The right response to this sort of incident is not to scream for revenge
or reparations.  If the soviets would say, "Gosh, we're sorry" then
we should clearly say, "It's OK, these things happen".  This may sound
like weakness, but it ain't.  As it is, the soviets silence makes it
harder.  If we just let it lie the US really looks bad.  Like we really
had spy devices on board or something.

Remember a TV movie titled "World War III" or something?  The US and
USSR are on the brink of a nuclear holocaust.  The president calls the
Premier and says, "Please don't blow up America".  The Premier says,
"I won't if you don't blow up Russia".  They agree, and after hanging
up blow each other to smitheriens.  Neither one believed the other.
I find this very believable.

					Jan D. Wolter
					University of Michigan