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Path: utzoo!linus!decvax!tektronix!ucbcad!ucbvax!wallace
From: wallace@ucbvax.UUCP
Newsgroups: net.rec.bridge
Subject: Re: Bidding Problem M2
Message-ID: <750@ucbvax.UUCP>
Date: Fri, 9-Sep-83 21:17:21 EDT
Article-I.D.: ucbvax.750
Posted: Fri Sep  9 21:17:21 1983
Date-Received: Sat, 10-Sep-83 13:38:42 EDT
References: <5651@cca.UUCP>
Organization: U. C. Berkeley Computer Science
Lines: 21

Actually, I would think the clubs are almost sure not to run unless partner
has a void (in which case he would probably pull 3NT doubled).  Consider:
opener has seven, you have four to the 10, which leaves two between
opener's partner and your partner.  If partner has both the missing
clubs, opener's partner will have no club to lead.  If the clubs are split,
they will block if either of them is an honor, no matter who has it.
Only if opener has all four club honors will they run.  Now, how likely
is that?  Well, for a random 1-1-7 distribution of the nine outstanding
clubs, the odds that all four honors are in the seven card suit are:
(7/9)*(6/8)*(5/7)*(4/6) = 5/18, less than one in three.  Granted, you
do have a little additional information (opener did bid three, lacking
the 10), so it's not quite random (if he only has Q-J-9-x-x-x-x, he
almost certainly has a side entry), I still think the odds are significantly
in your favor if you gamble.  Your spades and hearts look golden, and the
doubleton diamond eases your fears of a notrump misfit.  You don't know
for sure that you are massively ahead (your partners at the other table
could have dropped points, too), and it's early enough in the match that
you could still have a disaster or two coming up.  I gamble, and bid
3NT.

Dave Wallace