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From: lab@qubix.UUCP (Larry Bickford)
Newsgroups: net.math
Subject: Simple Monty Hall
Message-ID: <592@qubix.UUCP>
Date: Wed, 12-Oct-83 14:25:57 EDT
Article-I.D.: qubix.592
Posted: Wed Oct 12 14:25:57 1983
Date-Received: Sun, 16-Oct-83 10:15:21 EDT
Organization: Qubix Graphic Systems, Saratoga, CA
Lines: 14

Let's make this simple by enumeration. Possibilities:
(> == I pick; M == what MH shows)

> B	M B	  G	-> Gain by switching
M B	> B	  G	-> Gain by switching
M B	  B	> G	-> Lose by switching
  B	M B	> G	-> Lose by switching

What is being overlooked (cabinet/drawer/coin problem again) is that I
can choose from TWO bad doors, which are not identical!!!
This move the odds from 2/1 (p = 2/3) to 2/2 (p = 1/2).
Can I make it any simpler?
Larry Bickford,
{ihnp4,ucbvax,decvax}!decwrl!qubix!lab