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From: nm@hou2b.UUCP
Newsgroups: net.math
Subject: "Newcomb situation"
Message-ID: <140@hou2b.UUCP>
Date: Mon, 31-Oct-83 12:56:57 EST
Article-I.D.: hou2b.140
Posted: Mon Oct 31 12:56:57 1983
Date-Received: Thu, 3-Nov-83 05:15:50 EST
Organization: Bell Labs, Holmdel NJ
Lines: 24

Imagine, if you can, the following choice in what I shall
call a "Newcomb situation."

       You are offered the contents of one or two boxes.
  The first is open and is seen to contain a thousand dollars;
  the other is closed and is said to contain either a million
  dollars or nothing.  You may take whatever the closed box 
  contains (call this the modest choice) or, if you prefer,
  the contents of both boxes (the ambitious choice).
       You are supposed to have the following information:
       (i)  The set-up has been arranged by some superb
  predictor (SP) who has always correctly predicted your
  choice in similar situations and has nearly always correctly
  predicted the choices of other persons who resemble you.  You
  therefore confidently expect that SP has correctly predicted
  your choice on this occasion.
       (ii)  SP has already placed a million dollars in the
  closed box, if he predicted a "modest" choice.  However,
  if he expected you to make the "ambitious" choice, or
  to evade a reasoned choice by tossing a coin (or randomising
  in some other way), he has left the closed box empty.

Given that you are in such a "Newcob situation," how should
you choose?