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From: trc@houca.UUCP
Newsgroups: net.micro
Subject: PCjr post-announcement predictions anyone?
Message-ID: <422@houca.UUCP>
Date: Thu, 3-Nov-83 18:22:43 EST
Article-I.D.: houca.422
Posted: Thu Nov  3 18:22:43 1983
Date-Received: Sat, 5-Nov-83 20:01:14 EST
Organization: American Bell, Holmdel NJ
Lines: 96

OK EVERYONE!  Now we all know what the "Peanut" really is - so what happens
next?  Get our your crystal balls and look ahead 6-12 mos.  Who's on first?  
Who's going to the showers?  My predictions (read 'em and forget 'em if they 
dont come true....)

The PCjr, even discounted, will far to expensive to buy as a cartridge/
computer-game machine.  With the C64 going for ~ $200 with a couple of
joysticks, vs PCjr's $750 with two sticks (RL Platt's price list), this
seems obvious.  Of course, most people dont justify their purchase on
the basis of buying just a game machine - it is usually "to learn about 
computers" or "for the kids' educations".  Call this the "novice" market.

For that market, the PCjr has the wrong keyboard (at least it looks rotten
from the little picture in the WS Journal).  Physical appearance is always
the among the first things that a novice judges on, and the C64 *looks* like 
it can be used to let a kid learn to type, or a person that knows how to type 
to easily use the computer.  

The second thing the novice will look at is memory size, because that is 
something that is easily quantifiable, and so will be "pitched" by salesmen 
and advertizements.  Here the PCjr has the slight win of being expandable to 
128K - but since the user typically isnt even sure that they will be able to 
use the computer at *all*, I dont think this will help IBM too much.  

Finally, and perhaps most surprisingly, a fair number of consumers seem to 
be recognizing the need for disk drives, as opposed to cassettes.  (Commodore 
didnt see this, and is paying the price in delayed deliveries.)  I suspect 
that this is at least partly because the consumer studies the products a bit, 
and comes to conclude that a sign of a "real" computer is a disk drive.  Here, 
the C64 comes in at about $500, while I would guess the PCjr comes in around 
$1100 (with 64K).  Still a poor price ratio, but not quite as bad.  (I doubt 
that most consumers, even recognizing the difference in speed between the 
C64 and PCjr disks, will think it is that significant for their choice.)

Finally, any analysis has to take one more factor into account - the IBM
name.  This will help IBM a lot.  There will probably be a fair amount of
"prestige factor" in owning an IBM.  Thus, even with the price differential,
I predict that the PCjr will be the computer of choice for upper-income buyers.
After about one year, the PCjr will *normally* be sold with a disk.  The C64 
will continue to hold onto a large share of sales in the novice market.  IBM 
will decide that the "novice mass market" isnt worth it, and will concentrate 
on being the "preferred" computer - the one that everyone buys second.

This next market is the "experienced" buyer - anyone who's used a computer
for over a year, or has equivalent knowledge.  Here the PCjr fares a bit
better, with its expansion slots, separate keyboard, and expansion memory.
It out classes the C64, but the C64's price and broad user base will insure 
it a portion of this market too.  Commodore will run second to IBM here.  
Actually, one of the competitors that the IBM PCjr will compete against best 
in this area will be IBM - they will lose a lot of PC sales to the PCjr.

Apple?  Well, Apple has a reputation, and is fairly well known.  If only
they are smart enough to wait til the end of the shake-out, then bring out
a super-cheap Apple II compatible.  The IIE will do OK in the "experienced" 
market, but the IBM glamour will overshadow the Apple.  The MacIntosh will 
compete mainly with the Lisa and somewhat with the PC, I suppose.  It will 
find a niche market, and do better than the Lisa.  Apple had better get its 
act together, or it will see the big markets going to IBM and Commodore.  
I suspect that Apple will pull something out of its sleeve.  The mark-up on 
the IIE must be rather large, to cover Apple's start-up costs.  Maybe we can 
expect heavy discounting from Apple once the PCjr starts picking up steam.

Radio Shack?  They'll be around forever, even if they have to sell IBM computers
to do it.  Tandy is in business to make money, not to make computers.

Coleco?  They have a good idea - but I think their "game machine" image
will hurt them, just as it hurt Atari.  If any of the little guys have a 
chance to survive this Christmas, it's Coleco - IF they get their machine 
out in quantity, in time.  I really doubt they'll pull it off, unfortunately.  
Plus, if they do start to succeed, Commodore is bound to whip up a similarly 
bundled package at a lower price.  In any case, they are not in the same class 
as the PCjr.  If the PCjr succeeds, the increased attention paid to computers
by consumers might make the Adam survive, as people look for bargains.

Atari?  A likely shakeout by next Christmas - the TI shakeout should scare 
anyone away from Atari, since Atari is already having problems.  Its a shame, 
since their machines seem nice, though rather pricey compared to Commodore.  
So it wont be IBM that kills them.  Home videogames machines are on the way 
to being replaced by cheap computers, so Atari wont be able to rely on that 
"cash cow".  If Alan Kay is really coming up with something neat (The Dynabook 
at last?  A micro-Smalltalk?), he'd better do it fast.

Another "wild card" is the Sanyo.  This could be the first Japanese computer
to *really* break into the US market.  At  about $800 for a pretty complete
system with 128K and a disk (?), and some degree of PC compatibility, it is
very competitive with the PCjr.  Topping that off, I understand that it is 
definitely superior to the PCjr in graphics, if not to the PC itself.  Since 
IBM is apparently going to set up new distribution channels, IBM doesnt even 
have an edge there!  All it would take is a few big contracts - say with Kmart 
- and the Sanyo could be sitting right beside IBM in the stores.  People know 
Sanyo's name, and if the PCjr doesnt compare well to the Sanyo, there could 
be a big "upset".  (Especially if the price differential is really that bad -
get a Sanyo *and* a color monitor, for the price of a PCjr!)

	Tom Craver
	houca!trc