Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP
Path: utzoo!linus!security!genrad!grkermit!masscomp!clyde!ihnp4!houxm!mhuxl!ulysses!unc!bch
From: bch@unc.UUCP (Byron Howes )
Newsgroups: net.flame,net.politics
Subject: Nuclear Winter
Message-ID: <6236@unc.UUCP>
Date: Tue, 15-Nov-83 01:38:44 EST
Article-I.D.: unc.6236
Posted: Tue Nov 15 01:38:44 1983
Date-Received: Wed, 16-Nov-83 04:41:12 EST
Lines: 33

Given that fa.arms-d has died (or if it hasn't, we don't get it any more)
I am surprised that the Sagan, Ehlich et. al "Nuclear Winter" scenario 
hasn't come up for discussion in this forum.  Briefly, this group has
hypothesized (with the aid of computer models) that the amount of smoke,
dust and general debris kicked up into the atmosphere from even a limited
nuclear strike on cities in the Northern Hemisphere would cause absorbtion
of sunlight to the point where only 1% of normal sunlight would fall on
continental interiors.  The effect of this would be a 2 month temperature
drop of below 0 centigrade, the maximum being about -20 centigrade after
the first week.  In cases of a full-scale strike and counterstrike, the
temperatures would plummet to -50 C. according  to their scenario, not
returning to above 0 levels until more than a year later.  In addition,
reduction of ambient light would probably stop photosynthesis.
The Center ffor Atmospheric Research in Boulder, which uses a much more
sophisticated model for atmospheric simulation agrees nominally with
the Sagan scenario adding that winds would probably carry the smoke and
dust into the Southern Hemisphere with the attendant possibility of the
extinction of human life.  Both studies agree with the results found by
a group of Soviet scientists.  To add hellfire to smoke and brimstone,
if there are sufficient air strikes (as in neutron bomb) there will be
a resultant catalytic stripping away of the ozone layers in the atmosphere
subjecting what remains on the earth to a fair amount of hard ultraviolet
when the "cloud" cover finally settles.  

Momentarily resisting the urge to panic, does anyone have any hard data
on the TTAPS (the official name for the Sagan/Ehlich scenario) simulation?
Could mistakes have been made?  If so, how and why?  

						Cheerfully,

					Byron Howes
					UNC - Chapel Hill
					decvax!duke!mcnc!unc!bch