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Path: utzoo!linus!decvax!duke!mcnc!ka@hou3c.UUCP (Kenneth Almquist)
From: ka@hou3c.UUCP
Newsgroups: net.math
Subject: simple statistics question
Message-ID: <130@hou3c.UUCP>
Date: Tue, 29-Nov-83 23:58:32 EST
Article-I.D.: hou3c.130
Posted: Tue Nov 29 23:58:32 1983
Date-Received: Thu, 1-Dec-83 05:29:37 EST
Organization: Bell Labs, Holmdel, NJ
Lines: 10

Periodicly I see arguments like, "Deterrence has kept the peace for 35
years, which proves the probability of deterrence failing is low."  What
I am wondering is just how low the "low" probability is (assuming for
the sake of simplicity that this  probability does not change over time).

This problem can be recast in terms of balls and urns.  Assume that I
have an urn containing an essentially infinite number of green and/or
red balls.  If I draw 10 balls from the urn and all of them are red,
what is the probability that the next ball drawn will be red?
				Kenneth Almquist