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From: giles@ucf-cs.UUCP (Bruce Giles)
Newsgroups: net.sf-lovers
Subject: Re: The Library! -- Possible Future History
Message-ID: <1095@ucf-cs.UUCP>
Date: Sun, 27-Nov-83 14:38:56 EST
Article-I.D.: ucf-cs.1095
Posted: Sun Nov 27 14:38:56 1983
Date-Received: Mon, 28-Nov-83 06:18:42 EST
References: <4114@uiucdcs.UUCP>
Organization: University of Central Florida
Lines: 98


     I, unfortunately, thought that that was a very realistic portrayal 
of a physically advanced civilization.  I say unfortunately because I 
expect that we will soon be to that point ourselves.

     Here is a possible future history which illustrates what I am talk-
ing about.  (Anyone wishing to base a story on this fh is welcome to do 
so, incidently).  First, some background information:

<1>:    We have 'expert knowledge' systems in physical science today.  
	The ones I have heard about will determine molecular structure
	from x-ray diffraction patterns, and perform geological prospect-
	ing from a data base.

<2>:	The emphasis in modern test equipment is on simple, rugged 
	*phyical* measurement devices with advanced mathematical
	analysis by an on-board computer.  This is in contrast to
	complex, delicate equipment providing direct measurements.

<3>:	We are on the threshold of a 'robotics revolution' where far
	more sophisticated interactions between the items mentioned in
	parts (1) and (2) will be commonplace.


Based on this information, a very possible future history is as follows:
(The number to the left represents the year I expect this to happen by.)

2000:	Intelligent automated test equipment is commonplace in
	pharmacutical (?) companies, research & development companies,
	the military, and major universities.  This equipment is 
	used to (a) ensure quality, (b) suggest possible sources of
	contamination, (c) and do basic physical measurements required
	for further work.

2020:	Several major intelligent probes are launched to all other
	planets in the system, a number of major moons, possibly circa-
	solar and interstellar space, and almost certainly the deep
	ocean on earth.  These probes return not only the raw data
	they aquire, but also possible theories to explain their obser-
	vations; and most importantly, if they encounter something unex-
	pected they have the ability to drop less important measure-
	ments, reallocate equipment, design the experiment, perform same,
	and analysis the results, ALL WITHOUT COMMANDS FROM EARTH!

	As a result of these probes, nearly all physical knowledge of the
	universe after the launch of these probes is due to machines,
	not humans.

2050:	The meta-expert systems will be developing increasingly more 
	general expert systems.  As a result, more interdisciplinary
	experiments will be performed by computers.  Additionally, 
	social science 'experiments' will be commonplace using the 
	census data as the data base.

2070:	Most of the Nobel Prizes go to computer systems.   Most programs
	are written by computer.  Most program-generating programs are
	generated by computers. Most ....

2100:	At least one probe has been sent into a previously inaccessible
	location, after being designed, built, and operated entirely by
	computers, and being designed entirely on principles discovered
	by computers.  Possible probes include: a stellar probe (into the
	sun's outer atmosphere; a Jovian probe (into the inner atmosphere
	of Jupiter); a earth probe (desending into the lower crust/upper
	mantle of the earth);  a interstellar probe (using high acceler-
	ation drives, going into *deep* space).



At this point my crystal ball becomes too cloudly to be usable, but the point
I am trying to make is that even as soon as a single century from now, it may
very well be that most up-to-date knowledge is found by machine, not human,
intelligence.  After that, how long will it be before it is considered 
improper for a graduate student in a physical science to propose *actually*
doing an experiment for his thesis/dissertation?  After all, can't a computer
do it faster, cheaper, better, etc. if it has not already been done?

Then in a 'mere' millenia, we will have a culture which can approach that in 
*Startide Rising*. What would it be like after 7.5 billion years, and thou-
sands of sentient species have come and gone?

Cravet(?):  I personally would want to continue duplicating experiments from
	    now until the big crunch.  This would change portions of the above
	    culture, in that it would be acceptable to suggest you measure 'c'
	    for the 241,642,998,235,243rd time in recorded history, *so long
	    as* a computer system does the actual work.  This is in contrast
	    to the culture in *SR* where it is not acceptable to perform the
	    experiment at all, but rather the value must be taken blindly
	    from the *Library*.

Any counter future histories?


			    ave discordia
			    -------------
			    Bruce Giles
			    decvax!ucf-cs!giles (UUCP)
			    UCF, Dept of Math, Orlando Fl 32816 (Snail)