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Path: utzoo!linus!philabs!seismo!harpo!floyd!clyde!ihnp4!cbosgd!djb
From: djb@cbosgd.UUCP (David J. Bryant)
Newsgroups: net.sport.football
Subject: Re: Mathematical ranking methods
Message-ID: <550@cbosgd.UUCP>
Date: Mon, 7-Nov-83 14:42:44 EST
Article-I.D.: cbosgd.550
Posted: Mon Nov  7 14:42:44 1983
Date-Received: Wed, 9-Nov-83 00:02:06 EST
References: <3633@umcp-cs.UUCP>
Organization: AT&T Bell Laboratories, Columbus
Lines: 34

Well, since I posted a recent article asking about mathematical ranking
systems, you can count me as being interested in the topic.  I can see 
this going in two directions.  Either we can try and quantify a quick and 
approximate method of ranking teams or we can immediately go after a 
complex scheme that takes into account game statistics, injuries, home 
field advantage, outcome of previous games, rivalries, etc.

As for discussion up to this point, I think it is headed toward the
latter objective, which I must say I don't mind.  Clearly all those
complex factors come into play in determining the outcome of the game,
and so should be considered in any truly complete mathematical ranking 
system (even if you don't exactly know how to handle "intangibles").
However, I would prefer a simpler, more modest start.  I'd rather have
somthing coarse and fairly straightforward that didn't require 3-megabytes
of statistical data to run.  I consider it a great chore to type in all
the schedules and outcomes for the major college teams.  It seems you
should be able to do a first approximation based on some simpler set
of data about each team's schedule, record, and the records for each 
opponent.  For sake of argument, and hopefully to start things off,
here is a simple example:

	For team A, calculate the average number of wins for all
	the teams A has beaten.  Subtract off the average number of 
	losses for all the teams A has lost to.  This is team A's 
	strength factor.  Ties count as both a win and a loss.

A program to do this would take 15 minutes to write, and it uses
a small amount of data (both important points).  Comments?

	David Bryant   Bell Labs   Columbus, OH   (614) 860-4516
	(cbosg!djb)

ps: I don't suppose anyone has already typed in all the college schedules
    and results, and is willing to make this data available...?