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Path: utzoo!linus!decvax!harpo!floyd!clyde!ihnp4!cbosgd!djb
From: djb@cbosgd.UUCP (David J. Bryant)
Newsgroups: net.sport.football
Subject: Re: Invitation for comment
Message-ID: <559@cbosgd.UUCP>
Date: Tue, 8-Nov-83 10:33:18 EST
Article-I.D.: cbosgd.559
Posted: Tue Nov  8 10:33:18 1983
Date-Received: Thu, 10-Nov-83 01:10:54 EST
References: <898@mit-eddie.UUCP>
Organization: AT&T Bell Laboratories, Columbus
Lines: 28


	I've noticed the same thing.  As I see it, teams that lose almost
always drop in the ratings. The number of positions they drop is related
to the ranking of the team they lost to.  If #3 beats #8, then #8 is
probably not going to drop more than 2 or 3 positions.  If #8 is beaten
by an unranked team, then #8 can expect to fall quite a distance.  This
situation is aggravated if #8 was #4 last week and lost a game they weren't
supposed to.  This can produce a rapid plummet, perhaps out of the rankings
altogether (similar to what happened with West Virginia and North Carolina 
this season).  I suppose you must consider that #9 and #10 are close in 
strength to #8, and that since they won their games they should move up 
at #8's expense.  The paradox is as you pointed out - you expect #3 to beat
#8, so why should #8 lose ground?  It is as if the #8 team has a feast or
famine future.  If they beat the #3 team, they jump up several spots,
if they lose, they drop several.  No maintaining the status quo. 

	There are all kinds of examples of this phenomenon, with interesting
variations depending on how closly ranked the teams were, whether they were
in the first or second ten, etc.  It's a common enough occurrance that most
pollsters must just do reflexively.  Still, it's curious...

	Another more unusual case is when a team loses and moves up.  This
happened this past week with E. Carolina.  They played Miami (Florida) a
great game and lost in the last few minutes.  As a result (plus based on
their strong showings earlier in the season) got them rated #25 in this 
week's USA TODAY Top 25, where they were unranked the week before.

	David Bryant   Bell Labs   Columbus, OH   (614) 860-4516
	(cbosg!djb)