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From: fran@cbscc.UUCP (Frank Webb)
Newsgroups: net.micro
Subject: Re: PCjr post-announcement predictions anyone?
Message-ID: <360@cbscc.UUCP>
Date: Fri, 4-Nov-83 23:10:35 EST
Article-I.D.: cbscc.360
Posted: Fri Nov  4 23:10:35 1983
Date-Received: Mon, 7-Nov-83 23:52:02 EST
References: <422@houca.UUCP>
Organization: AT&T Bell Laboratories <SCCS>, Columbus
Lines: 44

I agree that IBM will probably not make noticeable impact on the
game or low-priced home computer market with the pcjr.  The
price is too high for what you get, compared with the c64.  I also
don't feel that they are going to pull the rug out from under the
apple 2e.  They will compete, but each is going on the basis
of the names they have already established.  Apple still has a
fantastic base of existing software, although there is some
problem with the II+/IIe compatablility uncertainty.  We need
to see how much of the PCsr software the pcjr is going to be
able to run on the disk system.  If they can run most or all
of the good stuff, then they have a good competitive product.

I doubt whether you will see Apple come out with a cheaper machine
than the 2e.  That puts them into the vicious infighting with
the gamesters.  I see them pushing harder into the next higher
layer, for small businesses and schools (colleges), with
the Macintosh.  That is a good solid market, and they can
come up with a machine slightly higher in grade than the PCXT.

Interesting to see where the PCjr will get its initial sales.  Lets
assume that you were a serious home or small business type, needed
a computer, did not want to get a "toy" system, and wanted
more business or analysis than games.  Apple was one choice, IBM
PC the second.  A lot of folks who were going to go with the PC may
now drop to the PCjr.  Of course, a lot of people who wanted the
PC for Lotus or Visi_ON were also looking at the PC/Clones, and
they too may go to the PCjr rather than the clones.

I agree that Apple has not been dealt a death blow.  They should
be able to survive the PCjr (unless the stripped machine suddenly
sprouts a network connection which allows an "edunet" type of
operation with one PC-XT feeding 12 PC jrs. in a classroom).

I have looked at some of the public figures for Colecos financials.
I wouldn't go short, yet, but their debt/equity and current ratios
really look awful.  Unless they can get some cash flow yesterday,
I wouldn't give them a good chance to survive.

			Frank Webb
				
				The unruffled Sage
				CB 2C235 
				.