Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP
Posting-Version: version B 2.10.1 6/24/83; site astrovax.UUCP
Path: utzoo!linus!decvax!harpo!floyd!clyde!ihnp4!astrovax!elt
From: elt@astrovax.UUCP (Ed Turner)
Newsgroups: net.politics,net.tv.da
Subject: War is Inevitable?!
Message-ID: <156@astrovax.UUCP>
Date: Thu, 1-Dec-83 10:16:00 EST
Article-I.D.: astrovax.156
Posted: Thu Dec  1 10:16:00 1983
Date-Received: Fri, 2-Dec-83 23:59:06 EST
Organization: Princeton Univ. Astrophysics
Lines: 48

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hypothesis 1: 
War will result from the devotion of large resources to the preparation for 
war during peace time.  "Preparation" is here taken to include physical 
(weapons systems), organizational (military establishments, plans, etc.), 
and political (alliances, aggressive foreign policies, etc.). 

Historical Demonstration: 
World War I among others 
(There are some frightening parallels between the pre-WWI situation in 
Europe and the current world situation). 

Lesson:
A sufficiently elaborate and delicately poised war apparatus will eventually
be triggered by miscalculation, accident, madness, etc.
 
 
Hypothesis 2: 
War will result from refusing to make preparations (as defined above) for 
war and from generally conducting oneself in a very pacifistic way. 
 
Historical Demonstration: 
World War II among others 
(There are some frightening parallels between the pre-WWII policies of some 
European nations and those advocated by the major critics of the current 
policies of the West.) 

Lesson:
Giving ones adversaries the impression that one is extremely reluctant or
entirely unwilling to fight invites a disastrous miscalculation on their
part.
 
 
Conclusion: 
Murphy wins.  When there is the potential for war (i.e., societies with 
conflicting interests and goals), there is probably no very effective way of 
avoiding the possibility (or even probability) of war, even though it may be 
in no ones real interest to fight. 
 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 
These gloomy thoughts are intended for both the hawks and doves in net land 
who feel *sure* they can see the path of wisdom and the folly of those with
opposing viewpoints.
 
Ed Turner 
astrovax!elt