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From: israel@umcp-cs.UUCP
Newsgroups: net.sport.football
Subject: Re: Mathematical ranking methods
Message-ID: <3633@umcp-cs.UUCP>
Date: Sun, 6-Nov-83 15:58:29 EST
Article-I.D.: umcp-cs.3633
Posted: Sun Nov  6 15:58:29 1983
Date-Received: Tue, 8-Nov-83 07:05:56 EST
Organization: Univ. of Maryland, Computer Science Dept.
Lines: 54

[ The following message is an edited reply of mine to some personal
  correspondence.  After I wrote it, I decided that it was of
  general interest. ]

	From:     phipps@fortune
	
	A big thing to me is the quality of the opposition.  This is
	difficult to quantify convincingly; I'm not sure that using the
	won/loss records of opponents isn't just shifting the source of
	the uncertainty (won/loss records) from one team to its
	opponents.

I think that what's needed first is a way of quantifying the
strength of particular win, such as Nebraska's games this season
being in the 6 - 12 range, Auburn's 35 - 23 win over Maryland being
around a 2.5, and Md's win over UNC being around a 1.2.  A tie would
be a strength factor of 1.  This maybe could be some function of
passing and rushing yardage, turnovers, penalties, points (of course),
and other features.  Maybe what would be needed along with this is
offset factors for special situations.  There is one that I can think
of offhand:

lower (or raise) the win strength factor (WSF) if there where
injuries (before or during the game (this factor will
lower the closer it gets to the end of the game)) to the
losing (or winning side).

In other words, missing key players for the winning side
will strengthen the WSF;  missing key players for the
losing side will weaken the WSF.  If the injuries are
during the game, then it won't change the WSF as much.

A losing team missing key players could even end up with
a win for a close game that they lost, but these offsets
have to be calculated carefully enough so that it doesn't
pay for a team to be missing a player.

	And how should catching a higher-ranked team on a letdown
	Saturday affect things ?  A win is a win, but I wouldn't count
	it as much as I would if the losing opponent were really up for
	the game.

I don't see any way of quantifying that, and anyway, a good team is one
that doesn't get caught by letdowns (as demonstrated in the Auburn
Maryland game).

Anyone have any ideas on this?  People interested in trying to build
a mathematical ranking system over the net?
-- 

^-^ Bruce ^-^

University of Maryland, Computer Science
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