Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: version B 2.10.1 6/24/83; site seismo.UUCP Path: utzoo!linus!philabs!seismo!flinn From: flinn@seismo.UUCP (E. A. Flinn) Newsgroups: net.games.rogue Subject: Probability of getting 40 HP at level 5 Message-ID: <435@seismo.UUCP> Date: Fri, 2-Dec-83 17:29:10 EST Article-I.D.: seismo.435 Posted: Fri Dec 2 17:29:10 1983 Date-Received: Sun, 4-Dec-83 06:20:44 EST Organization: Center for Seismic Studies, Arlington, VA Lines: 53 In a previous posting, somebody advised that if you don't have at least 40 hit points by experience level 5, you might as well just quit, since you can't survive very long amid trolls and xorns with few hit points. It's not difficult to calculate the probability that you will get to 40 HP from smaller numbers. Hit points are apparently awarded at each level on the basis of throwing a ten-sided die, i.e., you get a random number between 1 and 10. The expected value of what you gain at each level is thus 5.5; the expected value of where you are at experience level 5, after four jumps, is 12 + 4 x 5.5 = 34, so half the time you will arrive at level 5 above 34 and half the time below. The following table shows the probability of arriving at 40 from lower levels. Present Level Hit Pts 1 2 3 4 12 .026 13 .008 14 .008 15 .008 16 .027 17 .027 18 .027 19 .064 20 .064 .001 21 .064 .001 22 .04 23 .04 24 .09 25 .09 26 .16 27 .16 28 .25 29 .25 30 .36 .1 31 .36 .2 32 .49 .3 33 .4 34 .5 35 .6 36 .7 37 .8 38 .9 39 1.0