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From: ucbesvax.turner@ucbcad.UUCP
Newsgroups: net.politics
Subject: Re: Re TC Wheeler on High Frontier - (nf)
Message-ID: <1093@ucbcad.UUCP>
Date: Tue, 20-Dec-83 01:16:54 EST
Article-I.D.: ucbcad.1093
Posted: Tue Dec 20 01:16:54 1983
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#R:utcsrgv:-292100:ucbesvax:7500063:000:1529
ucbesvax!turner    Dec 13 13:24:00 1983

Peter Rowley almost has me reversing my stand on whether to pursue off-
planet development before or after settling the nuclear arms-race question.

He does this by presenting a solution in economic terms--that enough funding
for peaceful uses of space will draw talent and money away from "defensive"
uses of space.  It is, as he admits, a little simplistic.

Will increased funding for peaceful uses automatically result in less for
the military uses?  This question is more political than economic.  Quite
possibly, Reagan will push for (and get) increased outlays for *both*.  Of
course, there is nothing seriously planned for peaceful uses of space that
nearly approaches the scale of DoD megadeath schemes.

So again, space seems to come down to plowshares vs. swords--essentially a
moralistic or ideological way of looking at it, with no economically
determined program.  HOW will a generally peaceful approach to space programs
be achieved?  I guess the big hope is that domestic industrial uses of near-
orbit technology will suddenly start paying for themselves so fast that they
will draw talent away DoD-funded programs, leaving DoD starved of the real
capital of high-tech--fast neurons.  (Money, they will never run out of.)

Sounds good, but I'm not sure I buy it.  Even the Right Stuff quails before
the Last Bug--and space technology is nothing if not complex.  And recall
that time-to-market even for proven ideas is almost always about 5 years.
Is that enough time?
---
Michael Turner (ucbvax!ucbesvax.turner)