Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Path: utzoo!linus!decvax!harpo!eagle!mhuxl!houxm!ihnp4!inuxc!pur-ee!uiucdcs!uokvax!andree From: andree@uokvax.UUCP Newsgroups: net.sf-lovers Subject: Re: Re: The Library! -- Possible Future - (nf) Message-ID: <4292@uiucdcs.UUCP> Date: Fri, 2-Dec-83 04:54:37 EST Article-I.D.: uiucdcs.4292 Posted: Fri Dec 2 04:54:37 1983 Date-Received: Sun, 4-Dec-83 04:20:55 EST Lines: 34 #R:ucf-cs:-109500:uokvax:5400012:000:1679 uokvax!andree Nov 30 20:35:00 1983 I think you just managed to violate the canonical behavior of futurologists (optimistic in the short run, pessimistic in the long run). There are ALREADY medical & r-d expert systems out there. PUFF (pulmonary disease diagnosis & treatment), CASNET (ditto glaucoma), MYCIN (ditto infectious diseases), CADUCEUS (internal medicine), SOPHIE (EE instructor), and R1 (configuring DEC hardware!) can be added to PROSPECTOR (geology) and DENDRAL (chemical structures). Most of these are experimental, some (most notable R1 and PUFF) are in regular use outside the CS lab. I think your 2000 deadline (expert systems in regular use) will be here by 1990. Your other deadlines seem to depend on having machines that we could really call `intelligent' - that could deal with unexpected situations from the entire real world. I have a feeling that that is still a long way off. Expert systems are very good - in a very small, specialized area. The reason they look so good is that they deal with a small (85% of internal medicine small!?! GACK!) database when compared with the real world. Your point of adding good, general purpose robots to The Library is good, though. It would only be logical for fact X in the library to carry a tag about how to verify fact X. So having a robot run the verification for you would be logical (historical facts excepted, of course). Of course, this could make experimentation on your own doubly gauche: first because you didn't look it up in The Library, and then again because you actually DESIGNED AN EXPERIMENT! GASP!