Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP
Posting-Version: version B 2.10.1 6/24/83; site mgweed.UUCP
Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!burl!we13!mgweed!rjr
From: rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig)
Newsgroups: net.ham-radio
Subject: arrl propagation forecast bulletin nr 16
Message-ID: <8514@mgweed.UUCP>
Date: Mon, 16-Apr-84 18:46:16 EST
Article-I.D.: mgweed.8514
Posted: Mon Apr 16 18:46:16 1984
Date-Received: Tue, 17-Apr-84 07:53:25 EST
Organization: AT&T Consumer Products - Montgomery Illinois
Lines: 33


qst de k9eui
hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 16  from arrl headquarters
newington ct  april 16, 1984
to all radio amateurs  bt

the solar flux was down to 94 on  april  9,  its  lowest  level
since  early  january.   the curve turned downward on the 11th,
and the flux was back to  119  on  the  15th.   the  curve  was
leveling  off  at  that  point  and  another gradual decline is
expected by the  middle  of  the  forecast  week.   the  earths
magnetic   field  was  less  active,  so  propagation  actually
improved overall despite the flux decline.

propagation is expected to be fair to good  through  the  16th.
thereafter,  there will be frequent periods of high geomagnetic
activity, with possible auroral effeqts in the northern  states
and canada.  high latitude paths will be poor, especially on 21
and 28 mhz, but low  latitude  circuits  will  be  only  mildly
affected.  transequatorial dx activity on 50 mhz will taper off
from its high level of april but it will not disappear entirely
this month.

sporadic e layer ionization is increasing but the major  season
for  this  mode  is  still  several  weeks away.  its principal
effeqt is  short  skip,  occasionally  with  very  high  signal
levels,  on  28 and 50 mhz.  later in the spring the number and
extent of openings will increase, and e skip on  144  mhz  will
become more likely.

american sunspot numbers for april 5 through 11 were between  1
and 60 with a mean of 28.9  ar