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From: ecn-ec:ecn-pc:ecn-ed:vu@pur-ee.UUCP
Newsgroups: net.math,net.misc,net.rec.bridge
Subject: Re: simple (?) statistics problem solved
Message-ID: <165@ecn-ed.UUCP>
Date: Wed, 24-Aug-83 11:17:22 EDT
Article-I.D.: ecn-ed.165
Posted: Wed Aug 24 11:17:22 1983
Date-Received: Fri, 26-Aug-83 02:32:17 EDT
References: <1814@rabbit.UUCP>, <1287@tektronix.UUCP>, <2019@utcsrgv.UUCP> utcsstat.911
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	You counted drawers to get your sample size. I counted  whole cabinets.
	Why am I wrong? (because you get the wrong answer is not acceptable,...)
	laura creighton
	utzoo!utcsstat!laura

You CAN count whole cabinets. BUT (there always is a but) you do NOT have a
50-50 chance of getting cabinet 1 & 2. It STILL is 1/3 for silver-gold cabinet
& 2/3 for gold-gold cabinet. Now, since the result with 2 cabinets are not
really clear, let's make a analogy. Go back to the time of Marco Polo. Then
  suppose you are dropped on the Earth. The first man you see is a white man.
Is there a 50-50 chance that you are either in China or Europe ? No. Europe
has a better chance. Likewise, Mrs. Harris goes to Paris doesn't make you
feel a 50-50 chance you are either in France or in the U.S. just because
you see an American woman. Or if you see a nurse, there is more chance that
you are in a hospital or nursing school or the like, than that you are, say
in the Computer Center. Back to the problem, and let's count the whole
cabinets.

	There is a probability of 2/3 that you got the gold-gold cabinet.
There is a probability of 1/3 that you got the gold-silver cabinet. Therfore,
the probability is 2/3 (I think I am repeating myself !!! )

Hao-Nhien Vu (pur-ee!vu (This account will be terminated sometime this week.
			 Please send correspondence to pur-ee!norris.Thnx) )