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From: saquigley@watmath.UUCP (Sophie Quigley)
Newsgroups: net.politics
Subject: Re: Nicaraguan Arms Smuggling
Message-ID: <7553@watmath.UUCP>
Date: Tue, 17-Apr-84 06:52:40 EST
Article-I.D.: watmath.7553
Posted: Tue Apr 17 06:52:40 1984
Date-Received: Tue, 17-Apr-84 19:09:38 EST
References: <1152@dartvax.UUCP>
Organization: U of Waterloo, Ontario
Lines: 67


John Macario:
>   I can't understand why the US is so threatened by the
> Nicaraguans, a country whose main concern is feeding and
> defending its population.  Personally I fell more threatened by
> the massive US military build up in Honduras...I for one have no
> intention of spending a couple of years in army fatigues in
> Tegucigalpa.

The answer lies again in the all powerful "domino theory".  If Nicaragua,
a relatively small and very poor country can have a "successful" revolution,
meaning a revolution which restores a semblance of democracy to the country
and more importantly manages to feed its population, it would be a wonderful
role model for all those other bigger poor countries who have similar problems
to Nicaragua's.

This is a real threat to the US interests (no joke) and is why it is taken
seriously.  It is very hard to know whether the revolution will succeed, but
before this covert war started it looked pretty successful.  Polio has nearly
been erradicated from the country, the litteracy rate has gone up an incredible
amount (I don't know any figures) and human rights have greatly improved from
what they were in the Somoza days.  Does this sound familiar?  yes, parallels
can very easily be drawn between the Nicaraguan and cuban revolution. The
parallel carries over in the US attitude towards these 2 revolutions: refusal
to help the revolution out and outward denial of the reality that the people
after having had a taste of liberty (the central american type) and after having
lost so many people in the fight to get that liberty cannot go back
to the way they were before. 

It is not obvious what the best US attitude toward this kind of revolution
would be.  If it fully supports the Nicaraguan revolution, this will be a
very good example for other countries to have their own, and that might prove
to be disastrous economically to the US.  If they declare war on Nicaragua
or continue refusing to support it somewhat, this might push it in the USSR
camp like it pushed Cuba in.  The Sandanista government has clearly stated
many times that they didn't want to lose their hard won liberty to the
communist block, but they might be forced to for economic reasons if they
do not get more support from the West.  It is not clear which is the best of
the two evils for the US and that is why they have been conducting the
wishy-washy type of war they have been. 

To me it seems that the best solution for the US would be to declare an all
out war, and completely destroy the whole country, there would be nobody left
to go with the Russians, and it would certainly serve as a good example for
other countries to stay in their place.  Unfortunately for the US, and 
fortunately for the Nicaraguans, it seems that the US is not sure of exactly
how dangerous such an action would be.  This is why it is conducting these
little tests of public opinion: Grenada, the minings.  Does this sound vaguely
familiar again? although I'd hesitate to compare the US with Nazi Germany, the
parallels are somewhat disturbing in the case of Nicaragua.  History does
repeat itself and it seems that the world opinion wrt US action in Nicaragua
is nearly as indolent at the UK was when Hitler commited his first little
breaches of the Treaty of Versailles.

One bright line on the gloomy horizon.  Judging from what is happening in
other South American countries, it seems that the US is starting to recognise
that prevention is the way to deal with such disturbing problems.  One can
note that South American countries as a whole seem to be moving slightly
towards democracy, Argentina being the best example.  There is no way this
could have been done without the US "benediction".  Whether the move is
fast enough for the citizens of these countries remains to be seen, but it
seems that the domino theory is working in that Cuba, Grenada, and Nicaragua
have worked as examples to the US (ironically) of the type of mess they might
not want to get involved in in the future.

Sophie Quigley
...!{clyde,ihnp4,decvax,allegra}!watmath!saquigley