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Posting-Version: version B 2.10.1 6/24/83; site mgweed.UUCP
Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!burl!mgnetp!mgweed!rjr
From: rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig)
Newsgroups: net.ham-radio
Subject: arrl propagation forecast bulletin nr 22
Message-ID: <9551@mgweed.UUCP>
Date: Wed, 30-May-84 19:56:48 EDT
Article-I.D.: mgweed.9551
Posted: Wed May 30 19:56:48 1984
Date-Received: Sat, 2-Jun-84 07:59:24 EDT
Organization: AT&T Consumer Products - Montgomery Illinois
Lines: 27


qst de k9eui
hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 22   from arrl headquarters
newington ct  may 27, 1984
to all radio amateurs bt

the solar flux dropped below its level at the same point in the
previous  solar  rotation  on may 21.  it fell steadily through
the past week, reaching 117 on may  27.   this  was  66  points
below  the april 29 peak of 183.  remnants of the large sunspot
groups seen in late april are coming into view again, but  they
appear to have faded markedly in both number and size.

coming in early summer, this  quieting  down  of  exceptionally
active solar areas will not affect hf propagation severely, but
similar losses next fall would cause significant changes in the
hf  dx picture in the direction of lower muf and longer skip on
our lower dx frequencies.

conditions were generally poor in the  last  week,  mainly  the
result  of frequent solar flares.  propagation was improving at
bulletin  time,  but  this  will  not  last.    high   latitude
propagation  will be no better than fair may 29 through june 2,
but it will improve june 3 to 5.   seasonal  e  layer  activity
will  be common on 28 and 50 mhz, and the likelihood of 144 mhz
e skip will improve during june  ar