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From: rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig)
Newsgroups: net.ham-radio
Subject: arrl propagation forecast bulletin nr 30
Message-ID: <11022@mgweed.UUCP>
Date: Mon, 23-Jul-84 20:27:04 EDT
Article-I.D.: mgweed.11022
Posted: Mon Jul 23 20:27:04 1984
Date-Received: Sat, 28-Jul-84 00:20:04 EDT
Organization: AT&T Consumer Products - Montgomery Illinois
Lines: 32


qst de k9eui
hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 30   from arrl headquarters
newington ct  july 13, 1984
to all radio amateurs bt

the solar flux fell to a seven year low of 74 on july 20.   the
most  recent  74 had come july 19, 1977, when cycle 21 was only
one year old.  the occasional reappearance of  such  low  solar
flux  numbers should not be taken to mean the end of f layer dx
on our bands above 14 mhz for the  next  four  years,  however.
the flux was back up to 84 on the 21st, and considerably higher
values can be expected occasionally through at least 1985,  and
possibly longer.

the very poor conditions during july were mostly the result  of
severe  geomagnetic disturbances.  the earths magnetic field is
expected to be less active through the rest of july,  and  into
early  august,  so  there  should  be  a general improvement in
signal strength and quality on all dx  frequencies.  watch  wwv
for  k indices of 2 or lower indicating improved propagation in
the higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere.  the  k  index
was 3 or higher almost continuously july 11 through 21.

this summer has been a disappointment for users of 28,  50  and
144  mhz.   scattered  e  layer  openings will continue through
early august, but less frequently and over smaller  areas  than
is normal for the summer season.

american sunspot numbers for july 12 through 18 were between 13
and 48 with a mean of 29.0  ar