Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: version B 2.10.1 6/24/83; site cbneb.UUCP Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!burl!mgnetp!ihnp4!cbosgd!cbscc!cbneb!adm From: adm@cbneb.UUCP Newsgroups: net.invest Subject: Re: Silver - (nf) Message-ID: <963@cbneb.UUCP> Date: Wed, 4-Jul-84 15:22:24 EDT Article-I.D.: cbneb.963 Posted: Wed Jul 4 15:22:24 1984 Date-Received: Thu, 5-Jul-84 00:43:05 EDT Sender: adm@cbneb.UUCP Organization: AT&T Bell Laboratories, Columbus, OHIO Lines: 85 #R:eisx:-74900:cbnap:15300001:000:3508 cbnap!cmv Jul 4 14:31:00 1984 <> There are many things that make silver prices go up and down. First of all the demand for silver is primarily industrial (although it is now becoming more and more an investment metal). These industrial demands are growing. For example, in June of 1982 silver hit a bottom of $4.84 per troy ounce due to widespread rumors that the photographic industry would dramatically reduce the need for silver because of new advances in technology. In fact this almost came about, in West Germany at the International Photo Show Sony was supposed to display its new video still camera which would be used for taking still portraits using a video camera system. At the last minute they withdrew because of Kodak's suprising announcement of a new video display capacity for disc negatives. Kodak's system was far superior to Sony's system, far less expensive, and uses silver film in the system. This opens up a whole new area for photography which means more industrial silver use. Another example is Russia, who has been a big exporter of silver for some time has been recently been buying up huge amounts of silver (10-15 million ounces in 1982). The most likely cause of this is a temporary shortage due to increased use in the electronics, photographic, and military fields. They are not expected to be consistant buyers (they curtailed buying when silver prices hit $11.00). Also, the supply of newly mined silver has been slowly falling short of the worldwide demand in recent years. For example, one of the biggest Swiss banks (Credit Suisse) is a very large silver bullion dealer. In 1980 it declared the market to have a silver surplus of 6,126 tons. In 1981, the bank declared that the market surplus was down to 2,830 tons, in 1982 the surplus was 700 tons, and in 1983 it was down to 250 metric tons. This is due to the increased industrial demand for silver Other markets for silver include electronics, jewelery, and explosives. All of these silver markets are recovering and are expected to reach normal levels and even exceed them in 1984. For some time now there have been large speculative orders for silver bullion. Reportedly, mid-East and European buyers have been entering huge buy orders (up to 100,000 ounces at a time) in American markets. However, the turnover rate on these speculations has been fast. Large investors can turn over 200,000 ounces of silver in a couple of weeks and receive a $2-$3 per ounce profit on it. Other factors that are currently effecting silver are: Mine production sharply down. Coin melt and scrap production down. Silver coin production on the rise. Industrial substitutes for silver are few and usually more expensive than the metal itself. Now, as I read this I see that I have been somewhat biased towards the "bullish" tendencies of the market. However, as far as I can see, with silver currently at $8.50 per ounce (Tuesday July 3) I tend to agree with these experts that buying silver at this price is as close to a no-risk investment as you can get. Personally, I went for silver options which are somewhat more risky that buying bullion, but the profit that can be made is an order of magnitude greater. References for the above information include: "The Money Advocate", August 1983 "The Gold Newsletter", Dec 15, 1982 Let's hear some other opinions on this or any other investments that are currently hot! Craig Votava AT&T Bell Laboratories, Columbus ...ihnp4!cbnap!cmv