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From: anthro@ut-ngp.UUCP (Michael Fischer)
Newsgroups: net.micro
Subject: Re: future of software.
Message-ID: <745@ut-ngp.UUCP>
Date: Sat, 21-Jul-84 02:10:52 EDT
Article-I.D.: ut-ngp.745
Posted: Sat Jul 21 02:10:52 1984
Date-Received: Wed, 18-Jul-84 01:49:15 EDT
References: <1564@sri-arpa.UUCP>
Organization: Comp. Center, Univ. of Texas at Austin
Lines: 25

<>
The future of software will remain with the cottage programmer, although
the organization will change somewhat.  The principal problem that exists,
as mentioned, is the difficulty of getting the product to market.  The time
and expense involved can be staggering to an individual.  Advertising support
alone must exceed $100k, and that is a paltry sum these days.  

The industry would like the programmers' sweatshop approach, but that probably
will not wash.  While many programmers will work for a salary, many of the best
will not.  A single skilled programmer can knock down $50,000 a year in first
deliverys only, and another $50-100k per year in residuals.  Not many of these
programmers' works are widely available, since they are delivered in highly
priced packages, although many of them would be valuable to a wider audience.

My view of the future is really a continuation of the past.  Most of the
product that is 'hot' was either a company's startup product, ie their
transformation from cottage to big-time, or a product that was written
by a independant and distributed by a pre-existing group.  I think that this
will continue with a greater organization, much like the publishing industry,
or the music industry.  Sure minor products will be hacked out by staff
programmers, but I think that the 'huge' software will continue from its
present source.

Mike Fischer  anthro@utngp