Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP
Posting-Version: Notesfiles; site uok.UUCP
Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!burl!ulysses!mhuxl!ihnp4!inuxc!pur-ee!uiucdcs!uok!dwhitney
From: dwhitney@uok.UUCP
Newsgroups: net.politics
Subject: Food for thought. - (nf)
Message-ID: <6600061@uok.UUCP>
Date: Wed, 25-Jul-84 01:30:00 EDT
Article-I.D.: uok.6600061
Posted: Wed Jul 25 01:30:00 1984
Date-Received: Sat, 28-Jul-84 09:05:13 EDT
Lines: 44
Nf-ID: #N:uok:6600061:000:1981
Nf-From: uok!dwhitney    Jul 25 00:30:00 1984

#N:uok:6600061:000:1981
uok!dwhitney    Jul 25 00:30:00 1984



Just some food for thought, you may comment, or ignore it, but I just wanted
to say that at first.

Much has been made of the Newsweek poll which put Mondale/Ferraro ahead
of Reagan/Bush by about 2 percent.

Many people see (media people in particluar) see this as making the campaign
close...I sort-of disagree.

First of all, the poll was taken just after the Democratic convention; I
would certainly expect Mondale to gain some post-convention support. Also,
he gains support as people accept Ferraro as his VP.  But..

Post-convention popularity upswings are expected; in fact, if Mondale HADN'T
gained some support in the polls, he might REALLY have something to worry
about.  I mean, if after all the rhetoric in that convention some people 
didn't lean towards Mondale, he might as well not bother to run the rest
of the campaign.  Same goes for the post-Republican convention; they will
certainly try to match the rhetoric level, and hurl just as many invectives
at the Democrats as they hurled at the Republicans while giving the nation
very little with which to work.

One thing, though; all the good a 4-day harmonious convention does may
easily be undone when the news reports say GNP rose 7% and Inflation is
down to 4.2%; whether or not he was ACTUALLY responsible for the improvement
is irrelevant; what IS relevant is who the public will give the credit for
that improvement to.  And that's probably going to be Reagan. 

Oh, well.  I think Reagan will be re-elected, because America has no history
of booting out incumbents (except Jimmy Carter.)  In fact, Carter probably
would have been reelected had the Iran crisis not exploded in his hands
two days before the election. Going into October, he still had a small lead
over Reagan in the polls, if I remember correctly.  (If I dont, forgive me.)

(P.S.  I did NOT say the America has NEVER booted out an incumbent, I merely
       say it is not a frequent occurrence.)

David Whitney
ctvax!uokvax!uok!dwhitney