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Posting-Version: version B 2.10.1 6/24/83; site mgweed.UUCP
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From: rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig)
Newsgroups: net.ham-radio
Subject: arrl propagation forecast bulletin nr 36
Message-ID: <11996@mgweed.UUCP>
Date: Tue, 4-Sep-84 19:20:44 EDT
Article-I.D.: mgweed.11996
Posted: Tue Sep  4 19:20:44 1984
Date-Received: Thu, 6-Sep-84 03:47:52 EDT
Organization: AT&T Consumer Products - Montgomery Illinois
Lines: 33


qst de k9eui
hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 36   from arrl headquarters
newington ct  september 3, 1984
to all radio amateurs  bt

the solar flux average for august was 83.7, the lowest  monthly
figure  since  july 1977, when the current solar cycle was just
one year old.  the flux has been rising slowly since its low of
74  during  the third week of august.  it appeared to level off
at 92 in the first two days of september, but it may move a bit
higher  before  falling  again  toward  the end of the forecast
week.

after nearly a week of minor geomagnetic disturbances and  fair
to poor propagation, conditions will improve september 3 and 4.
another disturbance is likely september 5 and 6.  somewhat more
stable propagation is expected september 7 to 10.

signs of rising muf are  showing,  as  a  result  of  the  more
favorable sun position for the northern hemisphere.  the 21 mhz
band is becoming marginally usefull,  mostly  on  low  latitude
circuits.  more improved 21 mhz coverage will come later in the
month.  the 28 mhz band should be opening at least  briefly  by
the middle of september, on days when the k index is 2 or lower
and the solar flux is above 80.  both bands will  improve  over
the  next ten weeks, peaking in november.  skip will be longer,
especially on 40 and 80 meters, than we have seen over the last
five years.

american sunspot numbers for august 23 to 29  were  between  13
and 49 with a mean of 36.3  ar