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From: edhall@randvax.UUCP (Ed Hall)
Newsgroups: net.women
Subject: Re: will 15% really be assaulted...
Message-ID: <1954@randvax.UUCP>
Date: Fri, 31-Aug-84 12:17:10 EDT
Article-I.D.: randvax.1954
Posted: Fri Aug 31 12:17:10 1984
Date-Received: Mon, 3-Sep-84 11:10:35 EDT
References: <4016@tekecs.UUCP>
Organization: Rand Corp., Santa Monica
Lines: 31

] > Population divided by two.  Performing the indicated operations that means
] > 7 per cent of all women will be raped.  (Assuming there is a 50 year
] > window).
]
] That's a *big* assumption. Do you think a woman of 60 has the same chance of
] being raped as a woman of 20? Hardly. You have to make an age breakdown of
] those 700 rapes and determine the effective window based on that. I suspect
] 15 is more reasonable.

Go back to your Intro To Stat class, Jeff.  That 700 out of 500,000 figure
is for the *entire* population of women.  If women in one age category
are less likely to be raped, those in another are more.  If we accept
your assumption that only women from, say, 17-32 are at risk, then the
chance of them getting raped must be about 5 times higher (assuming
uniform age distribution for the sake of argument) than 700 out of 500,000,
in order to produce the composite figure.  (Alas, women, and girls, of
all ages are at risk...)

] With my assumptions, the number is now 6.3% instead of 33% (in Dallas).
] Which is still pretty frightening. But not nearly as effective grist for
] the propaganda mills.
]                                          Jeff Winslow

``Propaganda mills''?  Sounds like a ``conspiracy'' theory.  Why are
you trying to deny the problem, Jeff?  Dallas does, indeed, have a
high rape rate compared to other cities--but so does Los Angeles,
New York, and other *large* cities.  The problem is here, and it is
grave.  Were I to find a conspiracy here, it would be one of silence.

		-Ed Hall
		decvax!randvax!edhall