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From: rrizzo@bbncca.ARPA (Ron Rizzo)
Newsgroups: net.politics
Subject: Re: To all those voting for Mondale (or undecided)
Message-ID: <1068@bbncca.ARPA>
Date: Fri, 26-Oct-84 11:41:27 EDT
Article-I.D.: bbncca.1068
Posted: Fri Oct 26 11:41:27 1984
Date-Received: Sat, 27-Oct-84 04:21:26 EDT
References: <494@ccice2.UUCP>
Organization: Bolt, Beranek and Newman, Cambridge, Ma.
Lines: 68

Actually, there really is reason for voting for Mondale/Ferrarro even if
you don't like them or their positions.  Interviews with heads of all
major factions in the GOP (NYTimes Magazine, 9/10/84) reveal most believe
that Reagan will die in office due to a collapse of health.  They also
agree that, beginning Nov. 7th, a furious allout fight for control of
the Republican Party will begin.  The Republicans are divided far more
bitterly than the Democrats & only the personality of Reagan has provided
an illusion of unity, something which will cease on reelection:  most
GOP leaders believe Reagan will take little or no interest in party affairs
after the election.  The self-avowed crazies of the New Christian [sic.]
Right (Howard Phillips, Richard Viguerie, etc.) are (as usual) talking
bloodily about purging the supporters of Reagan the "hypocrite" (note the
Khomeini-ism) and capturing controp of the party.  Altho' the NCR lacks
voter appeal, they have vast resources of $$, minions, & mail for effec-
tively waging a successful power struggle in an organization like the GOP.
Moderates & traditional Republicans seem relatively demoralized & altho'
not saying much they're probably anxious about their future (if they have
one).

Even worse, a symposium of moderate & liberal political observers (see
NYR, "The Election & After", pp. 33-38, 8/16/84) believe a reelected 
Reagan-with-a-"mandate" will even try to enforce Reaganomics again;
they expect economic disaster will result but disagree about timing
(2nd or 3rd year?) and impact (will it favor Democrats or "radical
populists" on the far right?).

In other words, a vote for Reagan won't likely be for Reagan but for
Bush and/or the extreme right.  Despite the chaos within & without the
GOP that may result, it doesn't necessarily mean the Democrats will
gain, but it may considerably strengthen the hand of the lunatic fringe.

So even moderate, traditional, & thoughtful Republicans should seriously
consider voting Democratic on November 6th: a vote for Reagan has little
to do with Republicanism as they know it.

Finally, don't be fatalistic!  The "majority" isn't behind Reagan.  Voter
turnout has progressively declined for 20 years.  Only 27% of eligible
voters voted in 1980; that election was a particularly strong example
of the American habit of negative voting, not for a candidate but against
an opponent (see any standard political science text).

Opinion polls aren't very credible: the two major polling organizations
have been politically biased for some time now (Gallup's is pro-GOP,
Harris's pro-Democrat).  Besides, voters elect, not polls.

As a novelty item, here's an "abberant" polling result.  2/3rds of the
Harvard University undergraduate body (4,000 people) were polled this
week.  The findings were:

	Mondale 61%     Reagan 28%

Among black students, Mondale won 85%-8%, among women, Mondale got 72%,
& 58% of the men favored Mondale.  The poll was conducted by the Institute
of Politics.  What possible relevance does Ha-vuhd student opinion have
for the electorate?  The Institute explained the surprising results as
due to the fact that the students are issue-oriented.  The poll then gives
us a glimpse of the kind of verdict the general public is capable of deli-
vering on November 6th if they decide to vote on the issues.  In its own
way Harvard's a crosssection of the country with more than a few conserva-
tives in its midst.

So, VOTE! & vote well! on November 6th!


				"Ronnie Reagan is no good,
				 Send him back to Hollywood!"

				Ron Rizzo