Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: version B 2.10.2 8/7/84; site ucbvax.ARPA Path: utzoo!linus!philabs!cmcl2!seismo!harvard!godot!mit-eddie!genrad!decvax!decwrl!ucbvax!medin From: medin@ucbvax.ARPA (Milo Medin) Newsgroups: net.politics Subject: Re: A Fact for Milo! Message-ID: <3156@ucbvax.ARPA> Date: Fri, 9-Nov-84 00:46:30 EST Article-I.D.: ucbvax.3156 Posted: Fri Nov 9 00:46:30 1984 Date-Received: Sat, 10-Nov-84 06:42:49 EST References: <574@ccice5.UUCP> Distribution: net Organization: University of California at Berkeley Lines: 84 I cant believe this discussion. If your wife had a brain tumor you'd take her to an expert. And you probably wouldn't be able to understand all the treatment he'd recommend either. But it sure would affect you. Its a matter of realizing that you need to trust people. You cant avoid doing that. And just because you dont like what the doctor is saying isnt any reason to believe that the doctor's prognosis is wrong. Biologists study life, and strategists study strategy. When the strategists need data on the effects of nuclear weapons they read what others have written, including the biologists. They dont invent facts. As for the comment equating Teller with Sagan, that is an insult to the n'th degree. Sagan must be one of the most arrogantly ignorant people I know. He came to NASA a while back and I just couldnt believe the pure unadultered garbage he was putting out. And when you ask him to prove what he says, he claims you wont understand it, HE claims this! A person with a frontal lobotomy could punch holes in his arguments. The people at Rand who have been responding have been trying to shed some light on this subject, but everyone here seems to be attacking them for being experts. They claim conflict of interest. Well a full time strategist must get paid for his work, but that says nothing about the work itself. The analogy that the AMA is deliberating throwing away cures in order to stay in business isnt just wrong, its grossly insulting and shows the stupidity of the people who make that statement. You folks should ask the Rand people some questions and should listen to their answers. I dont believe I have been decieving people. I have many studies and reports that support my conclusions, and I'm sure Rand can refer you to many more, thats if you are interested in reading the facts and not fiction. Some people just have a hard time believing what the don't want to believe is true, its not anything new, but you cant make mistakes in this arena. ANd some of you out there are thinking that even if Nuclear Winter proves to be a fairly tangible thing, thats thats the end of nuclear weapons. Remember theres a threshold involved, and if you stay under that you'll be OK. There are even some working on new targeting plans to minimize 'city-burning' so as to mitigate the effects of it. SEVENER keeps talking about stopping the arms race. Well he's telling the wrong people. Why dont you mail a letter to the Kremlin? Ask them to stop development of their new SS-X-24 and SS-X-25. And ask them to please stop making so many SS-20's as well. And while you are speaking to them, you might ask them to not produce the new Blackjack Bomber as well. All this going on, and the bozo's in congress are balking about B-1, MX and D-5! Its the height of lunacy to say we wont build any MX's unless the Soviets come back to the table! If I were a Russian General, I'd stop any talks I had planned. Shoot, why look at a gift-horse in the mouth? Its people who use SEVENER's type of logic that make policy like this, and end up hurting real arms-control. I invite any of you to read up on the subject and become educated. There are a lot of issues involved in strategy, and some are very open to discussion even among the experts. But as long as people will ignore the facts and refuse to accept the REAL data that all this stuff is based on, it's ridiculous to attempt to deal with the issues in any reasonable type of way, and it shows! You wonder why people in the trade dont openly discuss things like this with the public, well as long as this hysterical emotional irrational type of argument takes place, why should they? If you cant handle the facts, well at least dont claim you are an expert. Surely everyone here has dealt with a person who thought he knew everything when in actuality he(or she, after all we know how Ferraro thinks) knows very little. How did you like interacting with that person? At Livermore, people are very open about talking about this sort of thing, because most people there have some level of understanding about the issues involved. Its clear we dont have that atmosphere here. I've invited you many times to look at some of the references involved, but I take it very few people have. If you want to argue about casualties, please, please read the appropriate reports. You can see how the figures are derived, and if you find some flaw in the rationality, lets discuss it, but dont come back with crap from Sagan or Mother Jones or the journal of Oriental Medicine! FACTS are what I want to deal with! Is that too much to ask for? Gads, it feels like I'm talking to Sagan again.... Milo