Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP
Posting-Version: version B 2.10.1 6/24/83 (MC840302); site mcvax.UUCP
Path: utzoo!linus!philabs!cmcl2!seismo!mcvax!lambert
From: lambert@mcvax.UUCP (Lambert Meertens)
Newsgroups: net.bio,net.origins,net.philosophy,net.sci,net.sf-lovers
Subject: Re: The missing step -- self-reproducing organisms
Message-ID: <6176@mcvax.UUCP>
Date: Wed, 14-Nov-84 06:43:45 EST
Article-I.D.: mcvax.6176
Posted: Wed Nov 14 06:43:45 1984
Date-Received: Sat, 17-Nov-84 19:39:16 EST
References: <241@hocsj.UUCP> <10770@gatech.UUCP>
Reply-To: lambert@mcvax.UUCP (Lambert Meertens)
Organization: CWI, Amsterdam
Lines: 23
Summary: Points out fallacy in estimating probability

:
> Indeed, it is an extremely complex thing.  However, the probability of 
> complex living organisms evolving ( coming into existence ) is actually very
> high, say 1, since it has occured, for whatever reason.

The probability of a continent coming into existence, shaped exactly
like North-America, is very high too, since it HAS occurred, for
whatever reason.  The probability of such a continent existing
elsewhere in the universe (especially if we define the Twin Towers
etc. to be part of the shape) is not that high.  If life on Earth
counts, the probability of living organisms having evolved is 1 and
not less.  If we try to estimate the probability of life evolving
elsewhere, the information that it happened here (once) does not
increase that probability one bit.

     Lambert Meertens
     ...!{seismo,philabs,decvax}!lambert@mcvax.UUCP
     CWI (Centre for Mathematics and Computer Science), Amsterdam
-- 

     Lambert Meertens
     ...!{seismo,philabs,decvax}!lambert@mcvax.UUCP
     CWI (Centre for Mathematics and Computer Science), Amsterdam