Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP
Posting-Version: version B 2.10.1 6/24/83; site mgweed.UUCP
Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!cbosgd!ihnp4!mgnetp!mgweed!rjr
From: rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig)
Newsgroups: net.ham-radio
Subject: arrl propagation forecast bulletin nr 5
Message-ID: <15391@mgweed.UUCP>
Date: Tue, 5-Feb-85 11:46:11 EST
Article-I.D.: mgweed.15391
Posted: Tue Feb  5 11:46:11 1985
Date-Received: Wed, 6-Feb-85 05:31:08 EST
Organization: AT&T Consumer Products - Montgomery Illinois
Lines: 36


qst de k9eui
hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 5  from arrl headquarters
newington ct  february 4, 1985
to all radio amateurs  bt

though the solar flux peaked at 91 on january  19,  the  factor
more  relevant  to  the  propagation  picture  was  the january
average of only 76.  it is also worth noting that there were 17
days in january when the solar flux was 72 or more, these being
close to the minimum possible value at this time of year.

february began on a somewhat more promising note, with the flux
back up to 76, and some indications that it may go higher.  any
solar developments capable of bringing about major  propagation
changes  will  be  reported  in  special  bulletins  as soon as
possible after they are observed.

geomagnetic activity was  fairly  low  last  week,  making  for
improved   high  latitude  propagation  on  21  mhz  and  lower
frequencies.  higher k and a indices are  expected  february  5
through  8, making for poor east west propagation on the higher
dx frequencies .  transequatorial circuits may actually improve
under  these conditions.  auroral propagation on 50 and 144 mhz
is likely february 6 to 8, mainly in our more  northerly  areas
and  in  adjacent  canadian provinces.  auroral effects usually
peak in the early evening  hours,  but  may  last  through  the
night.   watch  for  wwv k indices of 3 or higher and for their
predictions of geomagnetic storms.  auroras often follow one to
three  days  after  major  solar  flares,  also reported in wwv
propagation bulletins heard at 18 minutes after each  hour  and
changed 8 times daily.

american sunspot numbers for january 24 to 30 were  between  25
and 0 with a mean of 5.1  ar