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From: david@fisher.UUCP (David Rubin)
Newsgroups: net.games.pbm
Subject: Re: Diplomacy game spring 1901
Message-ID: <539@fisher.UUCP>
Date: Thu, 21-Feb-85 08:48:39 EST
Article-I.D.: fisher.539
Posted: Thu Feb 21 08:48:39 1985
Date-Received: Tue, 26-Feb-85 04:09:14 EST
References: <95@rti-sel.UUCP>
Organization: Princeton University Department of Statistics
Lines: 80

> Austria
> 	Budapest	-> Serbia
> 	Vienna		-> Budapest
> 	Trieste		-> Albania
 
See comments under Italy.

> England
> 	Edinburgh	-> Norwegian Sea
> 	London		-> North Sea
> 	Liverpool	-> Edinburgh
 
England has agreed to a nonagression pact with France, and fully
expects France to keep it (at least in the near future).  Her position
remains elastic.

> France
> 	Paris		-> Burgundy
> 	Marseilles	-> Spain
> 	Brest		-> Mid-Atlantic
 
France trusted Germany not to invade Burgundy in 1901, but evidently
will trust the Germans no further.  France probably will press for
English support of or German concession to French claims in Belgium.

> Germany
> 	Berlin		-> Kiel
> 	Kiel		-> Holland 
> 	Munich		holds	
 
Germany evidently will be satisfied with the gain of two centers. If
that was so, why didn't they order Kiel -> Denmark, thus allowing
effective retaliation for Russian perfidy?  Though tactically in the
poorest position (apparently the only power without a "friend"), well
timed offers (support into Sweden for England, into Belgium for
France) may create favorable conditions for a "Drang nach Osten".
England would likely be satisfied with such an arrangement; French
diplomacy might still seek to incite London against Berlin (the French
tend to be most jealous of English understandings with third parties).

> Italy
> 	Venice		-> Trieste
> 	Rome		-> Apulia
> 	Naples		-> Ionian
 
The dangerous early stab of Austria---or is it?  The concurrent move
to Apulia raises the possibility of A Apu -> Tun, F Ion C A Apu ->
Tun, A Tri -> Alb, build F Nap, and an Austro-Italian alliance has a
strong attack on Turkey with every Italian unit in a position to
effect the outcome in the East.

> Russia
> 	Warsaw		-> Silesia
> 	St. Pete	-> Gulf of Bothnia
> 	Sevastopol	-> Black Sea		(Failed due to turkey)
> 	Moscow		-> Ukraine
 
Russia would not simultaneously attack Germany and Turkey, ergo the
stand-off in the Black Sea was prearranged.  However, the Russians
have not yet tipped their hand as to whether they will side with
Constantinople or Vienna in the future.

> Turkey
> 	Ankara		-> Black Sea		(Failed due to russia)
> 	Constantinople	-> Bulgaria
> 	Smyrna		-> Constantinople

Turkey wishes to ally with Russia, but isn't TOO trusting.  If she
succeeds in gaining that alliance, and Italy is allied with Austria,
she will be at a disadvantage compared to the fully integrated forces
of the hostile alliance.  On the other hand, she will not be so
subject to a devastating stab as the Austrians. 

Overall, an interesting set of moves.  Austria is at substantial risk,
but has much to gain, too.  Given the lack of German ambition for
three centers, the failure to order Kiel to Denmark was a tactical
error without any rationale.  Every other country has reasonable
prospects and are at minimal immediate risk.

						David Rubin