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From: ncg@ukc.UUCP (N.C.Gale)
Newsgroups: net.politics
Subject: Re:Big Corporations 'filling the vac
Message-ID: <4850@ukc.UUCP>
Date: Mon, 11-Feb-85 16:53:06 EST
Article-I.D.: ukc.4850
Posted: Mon Feb 11 16:53:06 1985
Date-Received: Mon, 18-Feb-85 06:32:41 EST
References: <1951@inmet.UUCP>
Reply-To: ncg@ukc.UUCP
Organization: Computing Laboratory, U of Kent at Canterbury, UK
Lines: 35
Summary: 



of OPEC:

OPEC produces about 35% of the World's oil. The rest of the world is
drilling & producing at maximum capacity. If OPEC were to raise the
price of their oil, the West would still have to buy it.

The reason why they do not do so is to discourage investment into
research into alternative power sources (one of them, anyway).

While the non-OPEC nations of the world are increasing their output
by about 2% per annum, it is left up to OPEC to *cut* back production
to absorb this increase, in order to avoid flooding the market
and much reducing the price. This puts great strain on such countries
as, say, Nigeria, which are almost completely reliant upon
oil-revenue to prop up their otherwise unstable economies, and
so are none too pleased at having to reduce their income each year.
That is why OPEC looks as though it's breaking up.

In about 20 years, the West's own oil production will have been 
reduced to a fraction of its current level, due to exhausted
reserves. OPEC will still have hundreds of billions of tonnes
in reserve.

The West's oil consumption is reducing at a rate of about 1.5% per
annum, which rate is *not* increasing according to 1978-1984 figures.
Unless the West's oil consumption drops massively very soon,
OPEC are going to end up with an effective Monopoly. Again.
Which is why OPEC will not break up.

All the above is from memory & opinion, and quite open to correction.

-Nigel Gale