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From: franka@hercules.UUCP (Frank Adrian)
Newsgroups: net.politics.theory
Subject: Re: NOT about Libertarianism.
Message-ID: <411@hercules.UUCP>
Date: Tue, 12-Feb-85 16:05:03 EST
Article-I.D.: hercules.411
Posted: Tue Feb 12 16:05:03 1985
Date-Received: Fri, 15-Feb-85 04:00:37 EST
References: <255@talcott.UUCP> <topaz.387> <1341@dciem.UUCP> <633@unmvax.UUCP> <792@ames.UUCP>
Reply-To: franka@hercules.UUCP (Frank Adrian)
Distribution: net
Organization: Tektronix, Beaverton OR
Lines: 36
Summary: 

In article <792@ames.UUCP> al@ames.UUCP (Al Globus) writes:
>The 55 m.p.h. limit was never rescinded because the number of traffic
>fatalities
>went WAY down when the speed limit was lowered.  I don't know the exact
>numbers but I believe it involved many thousands fewer deaths per year.

	But an interesting question is if this is an example of 1) reduced
speed or 2) a "Hawthorne effect" due to changing the environment (For those
of you unfamiliar with the Hawthorne effect, a study was done at Hawthorne
St. plant of Western Electic in the 1940's.  The lighting in the plant was
increased. Productivity went up.  They turned the lights back down.  Pro-
ductivity went up again.  The light setting had nothing to do with pro-
ductivity - it was the changing environment which increased it).
	There is evidence to support both views.  If the decrease is a
result of reduced speed, the highway fatality rates should stay about the
same (per 1000 driver miles) year by year (I am assuming that the basic view
of drivers vis a vis traffic laws being obeyed and enforcement are constant).
The statistics show a yearly increase since the time the law was passed.  This
either means that people are ignoring the law, the law is not being enforced,
or the reduction in fatalities was due to a "Hawthorne effect".  On the other
hand, you have a reduced rate of fatalities indicating that it is the reduced
speed limit which causes it.
	As far as I know, the only way to tell the difference between a
"Hawthorne effect" change and a true variable correlation is to change
the variable, check results, put the variable back to where it was, and check
results again (i.e., find a state. Increase the speed limit to 65 for 5 years.
Check fatality rates. Decrease the speed limit back to 55.  Check the fatality
rates over the next 5 years).
	As a person interested in science, I'd like to see this experiment
done.  If a lower speed limit worked (there was a positive correlation between
legal speed limits and highway fatality rate), we could maybe lower the speed
limit some more and get more fuel savings and less traffic deaths. And if the
change is due to a "Hawthorne effect", we could remove a law from the books
which is clearly irritating to a fair percentage of the populace.
	Of course, this probably makes too much sense to ever be carried out.
					Frank Adrian - MFotN