Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: version B 2.10.1 6/24/83; site mgweed.UUCP Path: utzoo!linus!philabs!cmcl2!seismo!harvard!talcott!panda!genrad!decvax!bellcore!sabre!zeta!epsilon!gamma!ulysses!mhuxr!ihnp4!mgnetp!mgweed!rjr From: rjr@mgweed.UUCP Newsgroups: net.ham-radio Subject: arrl propagation forecast bulletin nr 13 Message-ID: <16239@mgweed.UUCP> Date: Mon, 1-Apr-85 18:50:25 EST Article-I.D.: mgweed.16239 Posted: Mon Apr 1 18:50:25 1985 Date-Received: Fri, 5-Apr-85 15:03:57 EST Organization: AT&T Consumer Products - Montgomery Illinois Lines: 51 qst de k9eui hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 13 from arrl headquarters newington ct march 31, 1985 to all radio amateurs bt the solar flux reached 80 on march 2 but fell back gradually in the past week, to 72 on march 31. it rose to 74 on the next day, and is expected to be in the middle to high 70s this week. probably because there were no large changes in solar activity, there were no severe ionospheric disturbances during march. propagation was generally better than is usual for this season but 21 and 28 mhz showed the effects of the quiet sun to a marked degree. the dx spectrum was largely 1.8 to 14 mhz, except for recent days, when all continents were workable on 21 mhz, and there was one day of 28 mhz propagation to africa, as well as to south america. activity in the sunspot group responsible for the late march flux rise dropped off markedly last week, but another active area is expected shortly. its principle effect may be increased geomagnetic activity, which will degrade east west propagation in the higher latitudes. te, or transequatorial circuits, especially to australia, new zealand, and the south pacific islands, will continue good on 14 mhz and lower frequencies. the te scatter mode is producing good results fairly often on 28 mhz, and occasionally on 50 mhz. te activity has been noted only after 2100 utc on 50 mhz but the possibility of morning openings should not be ruled out. traces of early spring sporadic e skip on 28 mhz point to the possibility of work by this mode soon on 50 mhz. it is not related to solar activity in any clear way and good seasons have been experienced in the lowest years of past solar cycles. it is most common in mid morning and early evening hours local time. skip distances can be anything up to about 1300 miles. signals may be very strong, but wide range fading and quick fade outs are common. when ionization is very intense there can be propagation on 144 mhz also, most commonly in june and july. another seasonal mode for vhf and uhf dx is tropospheric ducting, now beginning to show up in the gulf states. transgulf dx up to 1000 miles or more was worked on 144 and 432 mhz march 24 and 29. 1296 and 2304 mhz have also been used with this mode. american sunspot numbers for march 21 to 27 were between 21 and 0 with a mean of 13.1 ar