Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP
Posting-Version: version B 2.10.2 9/18/84; site mips.UUCP
Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!burl!ulysses!mhuxr!mhuxt!houxm!whuxl!whuxlm!harpo!decvax!decwrl!Glacier!mips!mash
From: mash@mips.UUCP (John Mashey)
Newsgroups: net.micro
Subject: Re:  Unix and the future
Message-ID: <122@mips.UUCP>
Date: Mon, 15-Apr-85 18:14:35 EST
Article-I.D.: mips.122
Posted: Mon Apr 15 18:14:35 1985
Date-Received: Thu, 18-Apr-85 02:08:42 EST
References: <9838@brl-tgr.ARPA> <498@terak.UUCP>
Organization: MIPS Computer Systems, Mountain View, CA
Lines: 64

> Unix?  A commercial winner???  So far Unix(tm) has generated a lot of
> *predictions* of becoming a commercial winner.  And so far Unix has
> failed rather miserably to live up to those predictions.
> What O/S has Unix outsold?  The non-existent S1?  Cray-1's O/S?
> Unix has been living on the incredible predictions of its impending
> inevitable success.  Those predictions are starting to ring hollow.
> I fearlessly predict that Unix will continue to do well in the "niche"
> market it already owns: systems used for developing programs which will
> be burned into PROMs.  I also predict that Unix will not make any major
> inroads into other applications.
> Doug Pardee -- Terak Corp. -- !{hao,ihnp4,decvax}!noao!terak!doug

When you predict the past, be careful; it's easy to be proven wrong.

1) It is clear that there has been way too much marketing hype around UNIX
for the last few years, especially from people who really don't understand
it very well.  Nevertheless:

2) Either I don't understand the English language at all, or the "fearless
prediction" above is not exactly based on awareness of facts.  Now, some facts:

2.1) UNIX applications have clearly gotten far outside the niche described.
2.1.1) Inside ATT & the RBOCs, there are thousands of systems that run UNIX;
A small sample of what they do includes:
	a) Running laboratory equipment [inside Bell Labs]
	b) Running manufacturing processes [inside ATT Technologies]
	c) Running telephone repair [611] [Automated Repair Servive Bureau]
		See BSTJ, July-August 82, v61, No. 6, Part 2.
	d) Assigning Main Distributing Frame equip (i.e., telephone line assgnt)
		(COSNIX UNIX variant, one of the earlist)
	e) Running switching machine attached processors and systems for
		operator support (DMERT derivative on 3B20Ds)
	f) Running office automation [ATT Communications /Long Lines, esp]
	g) Running a wide variety of specific applications: see last 7 articles
		of the original BSTJ UNIX issue, Jul-Aug 1978, 57, no 6, part 2.
	None of the above is particularly secret; since I'm not there any more,
	I have no idea of the current worth of UNIX-related h/w and s/w, but
	I'd be surprised if it were less than $1Billion.
2.1.2) I'm less familiar with applications outside ATT, but let's try a few:
	a) Graphics applications at a raft of places, such as LucasFilm.
	b) Graphics and engineering workstations (many)
	c) Network Operations centers [BBN & elsewhere]
	d) Office automation systems of various sorts[some current, some future]
		old example: Air Force Data Services Center (?) text processing
	e) ??? Inside the NSA: I'm not sure what they do in there, but they've
		sure had UNIX a LONG time, starting with PWB/UNIX in 75/76.

2.2) It's hard to tell exactly how many UNIX boxen are around.  I've seen
estimates in fairly conservative, non-hype articles of 150,000 by YE84.
Since I'm not a marketeer, I don't have numbers I believe at my fingertips,
but I have to believe that there are at least a few $100M/year of UNIX
boxes being shipped [if one only adds up the revenues of UNIX-based companies].
Of course, there is really a lot more, but it's always murky.
Maybe somebody out there has some good numbers.

Anyway, as always, UNIX is no panacea; it's important to know what it's good
for and what it isn't and to separate reality from the hype.  Nevertheless,
it's hard to see the fit of the "fearless prediction".
-- 
-john mashey
UUCP: 	{decvax,ucbvax,ihnp4}!decwrl!glacier!mips!mash
ARPA:	mips!mash@SU-Glacier.ARPA
DDD:  	415-960-1200
USPS: 	MIPS, 1330 Charleston Rd, Mtn View, CA 94043