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From: doug@terak.UUCP (Doug Pardee)
Newsgroups: net.micro
Subject: Re:  Unix and the future (heating up)
Message-ID: <509@terak.UUCP>
Date: Thu, 18-Apr-85 13:12:09 EST
Article-I.D.: terak.509
Posted: Thu Apr 18 13:12:09 1985
Date-Received: Mon, 22-Apr-85 06:46:43 EST
References: <9838@brl-tgr.ARPA> <498@terak.UUCP> <122@mips.UUCP>
Organization: Terak Corporation, Scottsdale, AZ, USA
Lines: 80

me> Unix?  A commercial winner???  So far Unix(tm) has generated a lot of
me> *predictions* of becoming a commercial winner.  And so far Unix has
me> failed rather miserably to live up to those predictions.

me> I fearlessly predict that Unix will continue to do well in the "niche"
me> market it already owns: systems used for developing programs which will
me> be burned into PROMs.  I also predict that Unix will not make any major
me> inroads into other applications.
 
> 2.1) UNIX applications have clearly gotten far outside the niche described.
> 2.1.1) Inside ATT & the RBOCs, there are thousands of systems that run UNIX;

This is a *commercial* success??  AT&T wrote and *owns* Unix.  Unix is
a *trademark* of AT&T (wasn't it slick how I worked that in?).  They
didn't "sell" it to themselves.

> 2.1.2) I'm less familiar with applications outside ATT, but let's try a few:
> 	a) Graphics applications at a raft of places, such as LucasFilm.
> 	b) Graphics and engineering workstations (many)

No significant number of *graphics* workstations have been *sold* with
Unix on them.  Many have recently been announced, very few are even
available yet.

A number of *engineering* workstations have, but that is the market
which I acknowledge Unix is dominant in and will indeed retain.

> 	c) Network Operations centers [BBN & elsewhere]
> 	d) Office automation systems of various sorts[some current, some future]
> 		old example: Air Force Data Services Center (?) text processing

Unix for word processing??  Is this a joke or something??

> 	e) ??? Inside the NSA: I'm not sure what they do in there, but they've
> 		sure had UNIX a LONG time, starting with PWB/UNIX in 75/76.

Might not NSA need to develop programs to be put into PROMs?

> 2.2) It's hard to tell exactly how many UNIX boxen are around.  I've seen
> estimates in fairly conservative, non-hype articles of 150,000 by YE84.

Somehow, I'm not impressed with 150,000 sales.  IBM sold twice that many
PCjr's last year, and considered it a dismal failure.  How many VAX/VMS
systems are around?  How many IBM MVS systems are around?

> Since I'm not a marketeer, I don't have numbers I believe at my fingertips,
> but I have to believe that there are at least a few $100M/year of UNIX
> boxes being shipped [if one only adds up the revenues of UNIX-based companies].

Again, I'm not impressed.  A couple of Cray's will produce that much
revenue.  IBM takes in *billions* a year from the PC alone.

Heck, back in late '82 Jean Yates predicted that in '83 there would be
600,000 Unix systems sold, and Mini-Micro Systems magazine predicted
that in '83 Microsoft would reap $2 billion off of Xenix licenses.
After Yates left Gnostic Concepts, her job was taken over by Brian Boyle
who (in '83) made a much more modest prediction that there would be
124,000 Unix boxes sold in '84.  Now that '84 is behind us, he is quoted
in the 2/85 issue of Unix/World, "...things have fallen somewhat short."

Faced with terrible sales of the Apple ///, the Apple Computer Company
declared the Apple /// to be a "commercial success".  Then they fired
everyone involved and stopped production.  Claiming "commercial success"
is easy.  Actually succeeding commercially is something else again.

Check out Fortune Systems, one of the largest (if not *the* largest)
vendors of Unix boxes.  Since they went public in early '83, they have
lost money every quarter except 2Q84, when they made $40,000 on sales
of $20,300,000.  In the 1-3/4 years since they went public, they have
lost over $40 million.  In 4Q84, they took in $18 million and spent
$33 million.  Is this commercial success?

Mark Ursino, Technology Services Corp, quoted in Computerworld 5/28/84:
"In the past four years, there have been 70,000 microcomputers with
Unix or a Unix derivative sold.  Apple shipped 70,000 Mackintoshes in
four months."  Fortune sells a 68000/Unix system, the Mack is a 68000
without Unix.  Which one is a commercial success?  Did you notice that
Atari is *not* offering Unix on its new 68000 "ST" line?
-- 
Doug Pardee -- Terak Corp. -- !{hao,ihnp4,decvax}!noao!terak!doug