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From: mjk@ttrdc.UUCP (Mike Kelly)
Newsgroups: net.politics
Subject: Re: House Votes NIX on Contra Aid
Message-ID: <164@ttrdc.UUCP>
Date: Wed, 1-May-85 12:22:58 EDT
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Posted: Wed May  1 12:22:58 1985
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 >From: jefff@cadovax.UUCP (Jeffery H. Fields)
 >For at least a year, the atrocities committed by the Contras will be stymied.
 >This will give time to the Sandinistas (so called Marxist-Leninist) to enact
 >their social reforms with less fear of military reprisal.  The social workers
 >will be less victimized and thus able to improve conditions in the Nicaraguan
 >industrial sector, while their brothers and sisters in the rural areas will be
 >able to breath easier and get on with much needed land reform.

I wish this were so.  Unfortunately, the House vote was mainly symbolic.
It is important in that it represented the wishes of the American people
to repudiate this portion of the  Reagan foreign policy in Central America.
But I doubt it will stop the contras.  The CIA works in many strange
and mysterious ways, and will undoubtedly continue to support the
terrorists they have trained and organized.  One tactic that will surely
be pursued is to obtain "private" funding for the contras -- a clear
violation of the Neutrality Act, but it seems the CIA has little respect
for U.S. or international law.   Money may also be funnelled through
other receipients of U.S. military assistance, such as Honduras.   

A strong sentiment against this in Congress *could* really restrain
Reagan.  But given the sympathy expressed toward economic sanctions
during the contra vote, it seems unlikely that Congress will really
muzzle the President.  Economic sanctions will seriously harm the
Nicaraguan economy, and drive it even more into the Soviet bloc for
aid. Strangely enough, I think the State Department understands this
very well and that is exactly the outcome they are seeking.  A stronger
Nicaraguan-Soviet alliance would provide the pretext for more aggressive
actions against Nicaragua.  And if Nicaragua tries to avoid strong ties
to the Soviets, the economic turmoil can be exploited as the CIA described
in its training manual.   The only hope is strong support from the
Western European and South American governments that see the Reagan policy
as completely wrong-headed.  But these governments are afraid to cross
the Reagan Administration because of possible reprisals against them.

So what is Nicaragua to do?  Well, pretty much what it's done for the
last six years: stand firm.  Be open to U.S. conciliation, but expect
the worse. (As Antonio Gramsci put it, "Pessimism of the mind, optimism
of the will.")   Try to cultivate allies in Western Europe and among the
non-aligned countries.  Try to avoid dependence on the Soviets.  Fight
like hell against the contras.  And hope you survive until 1989.

Mike Kelly