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From: orb@whuxl.UUCP (SEVENER)
Newsgroups: net.politics
Subject: Re: Nicaragua, Reagan, the Soviets, and the Devil
Message-ID: <625@whuxl.UUCP>
Date: Tue, 7-May-85 09:01:47 EDT
Article-I.D.: whuxl.625
Posted: Tue May  7 09:01:47 1985
Date-Received: Wed, 8-May-85 04:27:36 EDT
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> Andy Berman writes: (to my call for Peace groups to oppose Nicaraguan arms)
>    I disagree. Nicaragua is already under attack, not only politically
> and economically by the most powerful nation on earth, but also militarily
> by a force armed and trained by the US. The daily death toll is running
> an average of 5 Nicaraguans. (Relative to th US population, that would
> be 400 daily war dead).  If at this point the Nicaraguans went to the
> Devil himself to make deals for arms to defend themselves, I don't think
> it would be the right of US Peace Groups to critiicize that.
> Let us first remove the boot of our government on the neck of Nicaragua
> before criticizing their efforts to fight back.
>     Reagan needs no genuine pretexts; he shows tremendous ability
> to invent them at will.
>                  Andy Berman

If you make a deal with the Devil, you will inevitably pay the price.
There is no way that the Nicaraguans could withstand a full-scale
conventional attack with ordinary conventional weapons.  If they resist
an American resistance then the strength of that resistance must rest
upon the support of the population- *not* primarily the strength of
the weapons employed. The most likely pretext for an American invasion
is to continue creating concerns about Nicaraguan receipt of Soviet arms.
If such reports are true then how will such accusations be denied?
The next step would most likely be a manufactured border incident:
having raised the alarm about Nicaragua arming in such a way as to threaten
its neighbors, then the "threat" to its neighbors will be revealed to be
true by some such border incident.  Then Honduras' government will 
"call upon American help" (carefully orchestrated of course) to repell
this "aggression".  This is what I see as the likely scenario and pretext
for an American invasion or large-scale intervention in Nicaragua if such
is to occur.
For Nicaragua to indeed arm massively with Soviet help plays directly into
this scenario.
I think the defeat of aid to the Contras shows that restraint *can* be
successful in persuading the American people and Congress if not Reagan
and his henchmen that military intervention in Central America is a very
bad thing.  Moves towards Peace and not increasing military arms is
supportive to this cause in American public and Congressional opinion.
On the other hand, you should note that when Ortega went to Moscow right
after the Contra vote, that some Congressmen were outraged and threatened
to change their votes.  Now the House is considering bringing the matter
to another vote.  If it turns out that Moscow is indeed sending military
aid as part of the package negotiated by Ortega then Congress is extremely
likely to continue funding the Contras-- and thus fomenting the 5 deaths
per day you denounce.  And thus we will wind up a little further along
on the road to War.
I don't want to see such a War, do you?
          tim sevener  whuxl!orb
 
"All we are saying, is give Peace a chance"