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From: davis@hplabs.UUCP (Jim Davis)
Newsgroups: net.followup
Subject: Re: disgusting chain-letter
Message-ID: <1899@hplabs.UUCP>
Date: Sat, 11-May-85 05:04:31 EDT
Article-I.D.: hplabs.1899
Posted: Sat May 11 05:04:31 1985
Date-Received: Mon, 13-May-85 07:12:19 EDT
References: <822@erix.UUCP> <276@osiris.UUCP>
Organization: Hewlett Packard Labs, Palo Alto CA
Lines: 47

> Last week I received the chain-letter which I have enclosed below.
> . . .

    Interestingly, chain-letters will only be sent by people who
either are stupid, or very selfish.  Before you get into a tiff,
please allow me to say, that that conclusion is independent of
either the validity of the luck/curse that they are said to bring,
or even one's belief in that luck/curse.

    Either the recipient believes(B) or disbelieves(D) in the
effectiveness of the chain.  Either the chain actually works(w)
or it is a failure(f).  Let us examine the possibilities.

    Let us suppose that a reward of value r is promised, or a
curse of value -c.  We shall also use the default chain replication
factor of 20 (chains want one to send 20 copies out).  I assume
from having received too many of these cursed(see following mathematics)
things that 19c>r.  That is to say, the curse is never a mere trifle
when compared with the reward offered.  The chain must be continued
within h hours or the curse is inflicted.  (We leave for the moment
the case in which h is unbounded from above.)

Bw:	If it works and you believe in it, then you are heartless and
	cruel to send out 20 copies of the letter.  The rewards promised
	do not outweigh the necessity of inflicting the curse upon 19
	people for each one rewarded.  This is clearly required.
	Suppose that ONLY 18 people are cursed and 2 blessed on the
	average.  In order to sustain that level of blessing the number
	of active letters must double every h hours.  Since there is
	a finite amount of paper in the world this is impossible.
	Hence, if  19c>r  then you are selfish and thinking of your
	own reward while foisting off 19 curses on others(often chains
	ask you to send this "luck" to FRIENDS)!

Bf:	If it is a fraud yet you believed in it, not only did you
	act heartlessly toward those you sent copies to, you didn't
	even get the reward!

Dw:	If you don't believe in it, why propagate an illegal, senseless
	(to you) chain letter.  Even if you might have -- say, just on
	a whim -- the mathematics will convince you not to.  Those who
	you send it to may believe in it -- in which case you have cursed
	95% of them, or they may not believe it.  Then you have merely
	inconvenienced them.

Df:	See previous argument.
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