Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP
Posting-Version: version B 2.10.2 11/03/84 (WLS Mods); site fisher.UUCP
Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!burl!ulysses!allegra!princeton!astrovax!fisher!david
From: david@fisher.UUCP (David Rubin)
Newsgroups: net.games.pbm
Subject: Re: How to start a Diplomacy game off right.
Message-ID: <643@fisher.UUCP>
Date: Thu, 30-May-85 09:51:13 EDT
Article-I.D.: fisher.643
Posted: Thu May 30 09:51:13 1985
Date-Received: Fri, 31-May-85 03:51:34 EDT
References: <2086@sdcc6.UUCP> <245@phri.UUCP>
Organization: Princeton University Department of Statistics
Lines: 40

I can't resist anymore.

As France, I favor

			F Bre -> Mid
			A Par -> Bur
			A Mar S A Par -> Bur

for Spring 1901, and here's why:

	(1) France's most important military goal in 1901 is to gain
	    at least two builds.  
	(2) No move guarantees two builds.
	(3) Some moves guarantee two builds if the correct neighbor is
	    trusted.
	(4) This move guarantees two builds if England can be trusted
	    for 1901.
	(5) England cannot enter the English Channel without risking
	    Norway, an otherwise sure build; Germany risks less in
	    moving to Burgundy, and Italy risks nothing in moving to
	    Piedmont.  For Spring 1901, lacking strong contrary
	    evidence, trust England the most and Italy the least.
	(6) If England does stab, the defense is manageable, and far
	    easier than if you falsely trust (and are stabbed by)
	    Germany or Italy.
	(7) This move has as good a shot for three centers as any.
	(8) An experienced German player will not be unduly upset;
	    any German player can do nothing about it in Fall 1901, by
	    which time you will have had ample opportunity to make
	    clear your lack of desire for Munich.  If you wish to.

I've played France about half a dozen times in my diplomatic career.
I think I've used this move all but once (when I had strong reason to
believe Germany was more reliable than England).  In all the games
I've played, I'd guess England orders F Lon -> Eng about 10% of the
time, Germany orders A Mun -> Bur about 20% of the time, and Italy
orders A Ven -> Pie about 60% of the time.

					David Rubin
			{allegra|astrovax|princeton}!fisher!david