Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: version B 2.10.2 9/18/84; site brl-tgr.ARPA Path: utzoo!linus!philabs!cmcl2!seismo!brl-tgr!tgr!stephany.WBST@Xerox.ARPA From: stephany.WBST@Xerox.ARPA Newsgroups: net.ham-radio Subject: Re: The Quiet Sun Message-ID: <11015@brl-tgr.ARPA> Date: Fri, 24-May-85 14:09:21 EDT Article-I.D.: brl-tgr.11015 Posted: Fri May 24 14:09:21 1985 Date-Received: Sat, 25-May-85 09:14:05 EDT Sender: news@brl-tgr.ARPA Lines: 59 Re: Sunspots in next 20 years The Mauder minimum was a period without any sunspots for a period of about 60 years to the point where scientists doubted that they ever existed. During this time the earth experienced the "little ice age". Look at those old book with the people clothed from head to foot in Dickens and others. Remember that picture of Dante with only his face sticking out from a mass of clothes, and that was in "sunny" Italy. The Black Death was not due to plague virus but due to the drop, by an estimated factor of 1/2, in the world's food supply due to the lack of solar activity. The Worlds temperature has been rising since this period where it reached a peak in 1945, then began to decrease, and by 1960 the growing season was shortened by 2 weeks in England. In the last 10 years the temperature has swung up again, probably mainly due to the extremely high sunspot activity, not the greenhouse effect with CO2 produced by man. Most of the world's CO2 is produced by termites digesting wood and by Ocean plankton, not by man. We have been seeing the highest solar activity in recorded history, with the peak sunspot count exceeding 200 for the first few times. A decrease is very likely, not to a low but to a more "average" condition. In otherwords we are accustommed to an excessively high sunspot count and are somewhat spoiled by it. Sudden cut offs of solar activity are unlikely, the usual condition being that the peaks die out over a period of many decades. So in all likelyhood the next peak will be similar to the last but probably may not break 200, although every other peak tends to be somewhat higher and wouldn tend to make this coming one bigger. I would not let this stop me from buying new equipment. Even during sunspot minimums DX is good even if it is not spectacular, but you have to shift to the Lower bands. But remember, in 1974, at almost the minimum, there was a solar flare that gave us the same conditions as were in effect during the 1969 peak for 2 weeks. Even without the flare you could work DX and make many contacts by selecting the right band at the right time. The guy that waits for a solar peak for his DX is missing all the challenge. As far as world wide climatic conditions, the only thing that bothers me is that there is an Ice Age every 25000 years. We have 10,000 years of no ice. The last ice age ended 12000 years ago (10,000BC), and we are 2000 years overdue for another one. As far as the ice coming gradually, it does not. Mammoths found in Siberia, frozen in the Ice, had buttercups in their stomachs. What happened so that a mammoth that was eating Buttercups was frozen in ice before the Buttercups digested and remained frozen for over 15000 years? But I would not let this stop me from buying a house. I hope that answers some of your Questions. Joe N2XS (spark forever)