Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP
Posting-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP
Path: utzoo!henry
From: henry@utzoo.UUCP (Henry Spencer)
Newsgroups: can.politics
Subject: Re: Canadian participation in Star Wars.
Message-ID: <5666@utzoo.UUCP>
Date: Wed, 5-Jun-85 12:33:08 EDT
Article-I.D.: utzoo.5666
Posted: Wed Jun  5 12:33:08 1985
Date-Received: Wed, 5-Jun-85 12:33:08 EDT
References: <893@mnetor.UUCP> <5642@utzoo.UUCP>
Organization: U of Toronto Zoology
Lines: 45

> 	The so-called American view is quite realistic. In a nuclear war
> of such proportions that it would cripple either side's ability to
> make war, there would be no survivors! Yes I suppose this would mean
> that the US did not win.

I have minor disagreements with this (my opinion of humanity's survival
potential is obviously higher than yours), but not major ones.  However,
I must point out that the Soviets don't necessarily agree.  I'm not sure
whether they agree or not, but it cannot be taken for granted.  Please
don't claim "it's only logical", because that logic relies on a number
of assumptions, which are not necessarily universally shared.

> >...  It's not at all obvious to me that the Soviets would think
> >a couple of dozen bombs a useful deterrent.
> 
> 	Would they think hundreds of bombs to be suicide?

Good question.  I don't know.  Soviet strategic thinking would probably
be profoundly altered by the existence of an effective antimissile system,
but it's hard to decide in what direction.

> >(Incidentally, learning about Soviet targeting philosophy -- on this
> >fairly general level -- does not require access to anything classified.
> >They are quite open about it, the same way the US is quite open about
> >MAD.  All you have to do is make an effort to find out, rather than
> >just blindly assuming that both sides think the same way.)
> 
> 	If you believe this, I've got some land in Florida your just
> going to *love*.

I stand by my comment.  I'm sorry, Fred, but you are simply being ignorant.
Any well-researched and reasonably thorough book on nuclear strategy will
explain the differences between US and Soviet targeting philosophies.  (The
actual targeting decisions are highly secret, but the basic philosophy is
taught to hundreds of thousands of officers on both sides, and cannot
possibly be kept secret.  Neither side even tries.)  For starters, the best
popular treatment of this that I've seen is Nigel Calder's "Nuclear
Nightmares", which is recent enough that you should be able to find it in
any large bookstore.  Do your homework, please.  It is *important* that
people realize that the US and the USSR don't agree about basic philosophy;
it is more than a little frightening that most US politicians -- probably
including Reagan -- assume identical responses to identical stimuli.
-- 
				Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology
				{allegra,ihnp4,linus,decvax}!utzoo!henry